Deutsche Bank-Asia Macro Strategy Notes Asia Macro Strategy Dashboard-118433693

23/10/2025 00:52:23 GMT23/10/2025 00:52:23 GMTDeutsche BankResearchAsia Macro Strategy DashboardPerry Kojodjojo Bryant XuHazel LaiSameer Goel Vaninder SinghJoey ChungJalaj SinghOctober 2025IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEENDISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Deutsche Bank. ResearchWith the frontloading of exports in the first half of the year coming to an end, trends in IP and exports have become more mixed. Inflation is still undershooting, consumption is weak, and so is private credit. Macro overview of the regionThe Asia Strategy TeamOctober 20251AverageCNYINRIDRMYRKRWPHPSGDTWDTHB0.2 Export growth-0.10.00.0-0.30.20.4-0.91.90.30.0 IP-0.10.0-0.80.10.6-0.2-0.51.2-0.6-0.8 Inflation-1.4-2.0-0.5-0.4-0.1-1.1-0.90.0-0.90.0 Inflation expectation0.00.20.30.4-0.10.4-0.8-0.2-0.3-0.2 Money supply-0.4-0.2-0.5-0.50.0-0.81.5-0.5-0.20.8 Unemployment-0.1-0.11.31.11.40.80.61.10.80.0 Import growth-0.1-0.3-0.6-0.1-0.1-0.30.41.00.4-0.3 Private credit-1.3-0.20.10.1-0.90.21.10.3-1.90.1 PMI headline0.01.10.10.5-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.91.10.0 PMI: ouput-0.21.00.00.50.0-0.2-0.4-1.10.90.1 PMI: new order0.11.10.10.7-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.91.2-0.1 Consumption-0.5-0.10.1-0.3-0.3-0.40.3-0.70.8Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, CEIC, Haver Analytics Deutsche Bank. Research‒ The positive tail is from the potential removal of non-economic tariffs, the negative tail from more punitive sectoral tariffs‒ President Trump has proposed sector-level tariffs for pharma, but with substantial carve-outs, leaving minimal effective impact.‒ The focus will now shift to semiconductors, which is what matters most for Asia.‒ Future deals with China (current deal expiring 10 November) and India (also expected in November), as well as US court hearings on the President’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (5 Nov) will be key events to watch.2The Asia Strategy TeamOctober 2025Most of Asia has ended up with a ~15% effective tariff increaseSource: Deutsche Bank, White House, US BLS, US Customs & Border Protection, USITC* Rates in blue are for countries that are still negotiating trade deals. ** Fentanyl related tariffs for China (EOs 14195 & 14228), and ad valorem duty imposed on India under EO issued on August 6, 2025. *** Except for Japan & South Korea @15% . ****Most companies producing these pharma products in Asia are believed to have plans to invest in the US and are therefore expected to be exempted from tariffs. Singapore’s Deputy PM Gan Kim Yong has noted the same, for example, for pharma companies in Singapore. Notes: (1) We assume steel, aluminium, copper and auto sector tariffs are applied at 50% based on the relevant 8-digit HS codes specified under EOs 9704, 9705, 9980, 10895, 10896 and 10908, and July 30, 2025 Presidential Proclamation covering copper; (2) All other exemptions specified under Annex II of the 2-April EO (no 14257) ha