Deutsche Bank-Asset Allocation Q3 2025 Earnings Early Takes-118480255

: 24/10/2025 21:18:16 GMT: 24/10/2025 21:18:16 GMTDeutsche BankResearchGlobal Equity Strategy & Asset AllocationOct 24 2025Q3 2025 Earnings Early TakesIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Binky ChadhaBankim.Chadha@db.com+1-212-250-4776Parag ThatteParag.Thatte@db.com+1-212-250-6605Karthik PrabhuKarthik.Prabhu@db.com+1-212-250-1246Ben LipsiusBen.Lipsius@db.com+1-212-250-9671Deutsche BankResearchBinky Chadha | bankim.chadha@db.comParag Thatte | parag.thatte@db.comQ3 2025 Earnings Early TakesComing into the Q3 earnings season, we looked for a modest pickup in earnings growth into double digits and near average beats (Q3 Earnings: Looking For Growth To Edge Higher, Oct 02 2025). A quarter of the way through the season, we see:▪Beats remain solidly above historical rates, in breadth and magnitude, and across earnings, sales and margins. If beats continue at these rates, earnings growth for the S&P 500 is on track to pick up strongly from 9.3% yoy in Q2 to 13.2% in Q3, near the top of the range of the last 2 years. Growth is still concentrated in mega-cap growth (MCG) & Tech and the Financials, but other sectors are stepping up tentatively, off low bases. ▪As a result of the strong beats, Q3 earnings are now on track to end up higher than what the analyst consensus expected before the Liberation Day plunge. Indeed, they are presently on track to exceed the current Q4 consensus estimate which also plunged after Liberation Day and has since barely moved up. 2026 estimates however continue to rise steadily and are back to pre-Liberation Day levels.▪What companies are saying so far: most are not seeing a shift in demand trends yet, good or bad, and laggards seeing an improvement largely attribute it to self-help or market share gains, not a pickup in macro or industry trends. There is heightened focus on raising productivity and cutting costs, with or without help from AI. They continue to characterize tariffs as manageable.▪Albeit buffeted by a variety of catalysts in the last two weeks, the S&P 500 is so far following the historical pattern of robust gains during earnings seasons (up 75% of the time, median 2%).1Deutsche BankResearchBinky Chadha | bankim.chadha@db.comParag Thatte | parag.thatte@db.comQ3 2025 Earnings Early TakesComing into the Q3 earnings season, we looked for a modest pickup in earnings growth into double digits and near average beats (Q3 Earnings: Looking For Growth To Edge Higher, Oct 02 2025). A quarter of the way through the season, with 144 companies reporting (26% of S&P 500 market cap, 30% of earnings), we present our early takes.▪Earnings beats remain solidly above hist