固定收益研究

固定收益固定收益研究研究 Fixed Income Research 重要的披露和认证位于此报告的背面。 Important disclosures and certifications are located at the back of this material. 1 FIXED INCOME MACRO STRATEGY MONTHLY 固定收益宏观策略月报 2025. 10. 14 Wu Qiong (吴琼), CFA (852) 3988 6926 qiong.wu@bocigroup.com Margaret Zhang (张芳泥), CFA (852) 3988 6620 margaretfn.zhang@bocigroup.com Wiley Huang (黄为一) (852) 3988 6324 wileywy.huang@bocigroup.com U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Fatigue sets in, Chinese USD bonds steady  U.S.-China trade tensions re-escalated. Last Friday, President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese exports effective 1 November, citing China’s rare earth policies as the rationale. Following this tariff threat, the Trump administration issued stabilising signals over the weekend, while the Chinese government called for dialogue to resolve differences. Near-term UST volatility is expected, as the U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, while renewed uncertainty around U.S.-China tariffs and political instability in Europe and Japan are also contributing to fluctuations. The Chinese USD bond market stayed calm, with IG spreads widening only slightly on the back of declining Treasury yields on the first trading day. We believe that the solid base of Chinese investors provides a strong foundation, making any market volatility a potential buying opportunity. In China’s onshore bond market, sentiment shifted from risk aversion on Saturday to a rebound on Monday.  September saw a pervasive sense of “optimistic complacency” across global markets. The Federal Reserve officially restarted its easing cycle—framing rate cuts as risk-management driven—and markets broadly priced in a move toward the so-called “neutral interest rate zone” over the coming quarters. There was widespread expectation that the U.S. economy could achieve a soft landing despite clear downside risks.  The case for a 25bp cut in October is being subtly reinforced by political dynamics. A partial U.S. government shutdown has created a temporary data vacuum, while weak ADP employment figures and Trump’s remarks on potential mass layoffs have combined to amplify downside sentiment—a “data gap + worsening expectations” effect. At the same time, long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. This environment provides the Fed with a compelling rationale to deliver another precautionary rate cut. More fundamentally, while the direction of this year’s easing path is clear, the anchor for the neutral rate remains highly uncertain.中银国银国际 | 固定收定收益研究研究 BOC International | Fixed Income Research 2025.10.14 2  The UST yield curve is expected to remain steepened, with the long end facing pressure from inflation risks, government deficit, and concerns over Federal Reserve independence, despite some relief from rate cuts and geopolitical escalation.  In China, we expect near-term monetary policy to maintain an accommodative stance, combining targeted adjustments in aggregate tools with expanded use of st