Deutsche Bank-Fed Notes September FOMC survey results-117775697

T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaT2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on: 15/09/2025 20:05:36 GMTDistributed on: 15/09/2025 20:05:36 GMTDeutsche Bank Research Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. Economics Fed Notes Date 15 September 2025 September FOMC survey results This note summarizes responses to the first edition of a new investor survey that we plan to conduct ahead of each FOMC meeting. The objective of the survey is to understand expectations for the meeting and how financial markets and market expectations are likely to respond to various potential outcomes. Responses to this survey were submitted between Tuesday 9/9 and Thursday 9/11. Background on respondents (Figures 1-3) • There were 115 respondents (though not all answered every question). • Most respondents are based in the US (40%) or Europe (40%). • The overwhelming majority have a fixed-income (44%) or multi-asset (38%) focus; the rest are in equities or FX. • 57% are risk-takers, either as a portfolio manager or trader. Figure 1: Geographic distribution of respondents Source: Deutsche Bank Research Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D. Chief US Economist +1-212-250-6161 Matthew Raskin Strategist +1-212-250-1741 Amy Yang Economist +1-212-250-9959 15 September 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 2 Figure 2: Asset class breakdown of respondents Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 3: Role of respondents: over half are risk-takers Source: Deutsche Bank Research Expectations for policy at this week’s meeting (Figures 4-8) • Respondents attach an average probability of 80% to a 25bp rate cut at this week’s meeting. This average is similar across respondents in different roles (i.e., PM, trader, research, etc.). • Just under half (45%) expect Chair Powell in his press conference to sound neutral relative to market expectations; the remainder skew towards Powell sounding hawkish. • Expectations for the median 2025 dot in the SEP are close to evenly split, with 51% expecting it to show 50bps of cuts and 43% expecting 75bps. 15 September 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 Figure 4: Expectations for the meeting: 80% average probability assigned to 25bp cut, ~15% probability to 50bp Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 5: No meaningful difference in Sept rate cut distributions across roles Source: Deutsche Bank Research 15 September 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 4 Figure 6: Nearly half expect a neutral tone from Powell, with the remainder skewed hawkish Source: Deutsche Bank Research Figure 7: Small edge to the median 2025 dot remaining unchanged and showing two total 25bp reductions over the rest of this year Source: Deutsche Bank Research 15 September 2025 Fed Notes Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5 Figure