国际清算银行季度报告2025年9月国际银行和金融市场动态（英）

BIS Quarterly ReviewSeptember 2025International banking and financial market developmentsBIS Quarterly ReviewSeptember 2025International banking and financial market developments BIS Quarterly Review Monetary and Economic Department Editorial Committee: Gaston Gelos Benoît Mojon Daniel Rees Andreas Schrimpf Frank Smets Hyun Song Shin General queries concerning this commentary should be addressed to Andreas Schrimpf (tel +41 61 280 8942, e-mail: andreas.schrimpf@bis.org), queries concerning specific parts to the authors, whose details appear at the head of each section. This publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2509.htm). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 978-92-9259-883-9 (online) ISSN 1683-0121 (online) BIS Quarterly Review, September 2025 iii BIS Quarterly Review September 2025 International banking and financial market developments Markets shrug off trade conflicts ................................................................................................. 1 Risk assets plough ahead ....................................................................................................... 2 Box A: Understanding the swift market recovery after the April 2025 tariff shock ..................................................................................................... 5 Box B: The safe haven properties of US Treasuries and portfolio flows of global investors ............................................................................. 9 Bond markets await further policy easing ...................................................................... 10 EMEs joined the risk-on rally ............................................................................................... 13 Articles A multi-sector assessment of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs ........................... 15 Matthias Burgert, Benoît Mojon, Daniel Rees, Matthias Rottner and Hongyan Zhao Tariff announcements and the structure of global trade ....................................... 17 The impact of tariffs on output and inflation – an initial assessment ............... 19 Box A: MS-Trade: a quantitative trade model for a global perspective on the impact of tariffs....................................................... 20 Interpreting the transmission mechanism: supply, demand and production networks ................................................................................. 25 Box B: BIS-MS: a framework for analysing sectoral spillovers and assessing monetary policy .................................................................... 26 Box C: Bridging MS-Trade and BIS-MS through the multi-sector structure .................................................................................................. 27 Policy implications .........................................