广东中长期低碳转型路径研究 ——基于EPS模型

广东中长期低碳转型路径研究——基于 EPS 模型2025 年 9 月报告摘要关于绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）绿色创新发展研究院 (Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress, iGDP)，2014 年成立于北京，是专注绿色低碳发展的公益性国际化智库。iGDP 自成立以来，根植我国绿色低碳实践，面向全球应对气候变化进程，服务决策者、实践者、投资者， 通过跨学科、系统性、实证性的研究，推动能源和气候变化解决方案的科学化和精细化，与多方合作推动绿色低碳议题的多元化和国际化的沟通，提供有国际视野和前瞻思考的解决方案及公共知识产品，为全球可持续发展做出贡献。报告编写团队绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：李鑫迪、杨鹂、袁雅婷、宋曼娇、朱彤昕、奚溪、陈美安、胡敏中国科学院广州能源研究所：刘桢、廖翠萍、黄莹、谢鹏程致 谢报告编写团队真诚感谢能源创新政策和技术有限责任公司（EI）团队对本研究的长期技术与研究支持。感谢广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院教授曾雪兰对报告的宝贵建议。感谢绿色创新发展研究院同事吕雅宁对报告传播的支持。感谢绿色创新发展研究院同事包林洁对报告的排版。免责声明本报告编写所采用的数据均来自公开的信息和渠道，我们力求准确和完整，但难免偶有疏漏。报告基于初步成果撰写，用于讨论和交流，内容会随下一阶段研究成果进行修正、更新或增减。本报告仅属于作者的研究成果，不代表所在机构、咨询专家的立场和观点。引用建议李鑫迪，刘桢，廖翠萍，黄莹，谢鹏程，杨鹂，袁雅婷，宋曼娇，朱彤昕，奚溪，陈美安，胡敏 . (2025). 广东中长期低碳转型路径研究——基于 EPS 模型 . 北京：绿色创新发展研究院联系方式绿色创新发展研究院（iGDP）：igdpoffice@igdp.cn 目 录执行摘要············································································1第一章 广东低碳发展现状 ·····························································21.1 社会发展 ··········································································· 21.2 能源与排放情况 ····································································· 31.3 低碳转型政策体系与整体目标·························································· 61.4 低碳转型成效及趋势 ································································· 8第二章 研究方法和情景设置 ·························································· 122.1 模型介绍 ·········································································· 122.2 数据来源 ·········································································· 132.3 情景设置 ·········································································· 13第三章 广东能源和碳排放展望 ························································ 153.1 温室气体排放 ······································································ 153.2 能源消费 ·········································································· 173.3 分部门低碳转型 ···································································· 18第四章 广东省碳中和实现路径及社会经济影响 ·········································· 294.1 双碳情景下主要低碳发展目标························································· 294.2 经济社会影响 ······································································ 294.3 政策路径及减排贡献 ································································ 30第五章 总结及建议 ·································································· 35附录 1：广东省 1+N 及“十四五”低碳发展政策一览 ······································ 36附录 2：情景设置 ··································································· 38图目录图 1 广东省产业布局 ···················································································2图 2 2022 年广东一次能源消费结构 ······································································3图 3 2022 年广东能源相关 CO2 排放结构 ··································································4图 4 2020 年广东省发电量结构 ··········································································4图 5 广东省 2019 年制造业分行业能源消费占比（左：广东，右：全国） ······································5图 6 2020 年建筑运行阶段用能结构（全国与广东） ························································5图 7 2020 年