美联储-金融结构与并购（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Financial Structure and MergersCharles Taragin, Benjamin Wallace, Eddie Watkins2025-080Please cite this paper as:Taragin, Charles, Benjamin Wallace, and Eddie Watkins (2025). “Financial Structure andMergers,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-080. Washington: Board of Gov-ernors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.080.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Financial Structure and MergersCharles Taragin, Benjamin Wallace, and Eddie Watkins∗September 8, 2025AbstractWe study how corporate debt influences the competitive outcomes of horizontaland conglomerate mergers. In contrast to standard models where debt does notaffect pricing, our framework shows that mergers can spread fixed debt obligationsacross a broader product portfolio, creating an “insurance effect” against adversedemand shocks.This effect interacts with the traditional recapture effect fromreduced competition.Using numerical simulations and a case study of a majorcasino merger, we find that debt can either dampen or amplify post-merger priceincreases, depending on the merger’s structure and the market environment.JEL classification: L41, L13, K21, G32, G34Keywords: financial structure; merger simulation; horizontal markets∗Taragin:Federal Reserve Board of Governors,1901 K St NW, Washington,DC 20006,Charles.S.Taragin@frb.gov, Wallace: Federal Trade Commission, 600 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Wash-ington, DC 20580, bwallace1@ftc.gov, Watkins: Federal Trade Commission, 600 Pennsylvania Ave., NWWashington, DC 20580, wwatkins@ftc.gov. The views expressed in this article are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Trade Commission or any individual Commissioner,or other members of the Board research staff or by the Board of Governors. We are thankful for thecomments of the participants at International Industrial Organization Conference, Southern EconomicConference, and FTC Internal Research Conference. An earlier version of this paper circulated under thetitle Debt and Mergers.11IntroductionModern firms maintain substantial debt levels on their balance sheets. Between 2003 and2022, large, publicly traded firms typically exhibited debt-to-equity ratios ranging from0.4 to 3.1 In addition, mergers themselves are often financed by debt. During this period,approximately 23% of the value of all commercial loans was used to finance mergers,with firms typically bor