美联储-非同质需求转移与通货膨胀不平等（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Non-homothetic Demand Shifts and Inflation InequalityJacob Orchard2025-085Please cite this paper as:Orchard, Jacob (2025). “Non-homothetic Demand Shifts and Inflation Inequality,” Financeand Economics Discussion Series 2025-085. Washington: Board of Governors of the FederalReserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.085.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Non-homothetic Demand Shifts and Inflation InequalityJacob OrchardFederal Reserve BoardFirst Version: February 2021This Version: August 2025AbstractThis paper shows that adverse macroeconomic shocks systematically increase in-flation for low-income households relative to high-income households. I document twokey facts: (i) during every U.S. recession since 1959, aggregate spending shifts towardproducts disproportionately purchased by low-income households (necessities); and (ii)relative prices of necessities rise during recessions. These patterns can be explained bya model with non-homothetic demand and a concave production possibility frontier:shocks that reduce expenditure induce households to reallocate spending from luxuriesto necessities, raising their relative prices.I empirically show that this mechanismoperates for both demand and supply shocks, using monetary policy and oil price newsshocks. Incorporating this mechanism into a quantitative model reproduces most ofthe variation in necessity prices and shares from 1961 to 2024. The model shows thatthe fall in expenditure due to a recessionary shock similar to the Great Recession leadsinflation to increase by more than 1.5 percentage points for low-income householdsrelative to high-income households. The results suggest that low-income householdsare hit twice by adverse shocks: once by the shock itself and again as their price indexincreases relative to that of other households.JEL Classification: E30, D12KEYWORDS: inflation, non-homotheticity, real income inequality, business cycleContact: jake@jakeorchard.comThis paper previously circulated as, “Cyclical Demand Shifts and Cost of Living Inequality.” I would like tothank the editor (Nir Jaimovich), four anonymous referees, Valerie Ramey, Johannes Wieland, Munseob Lee,Marc Muendler, Joey Engelberg, Chiara Osbat (Discussant), Jonathan Fisher, David Argente, ChristopherHuckfeldt, Erick Sager, Colin Hottman, Ekaterina Peneva, Robbie Minton, Daniel Villar, Brad Strum, JuanHerre˜no, Fabian Trottner, Fab