美联储-发达经济体的核心通货膨胀：区域视角（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1421September 2025Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A Regional PerspectiveDaniel O. Beltran and Julio L. OrtizPlease cite this paper as:Beltran, Daniel O., and Julio L. Ortiz (2025). “Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies:A Regional Perspective,” International Finance Discussion Papers 1421. Washington: Boardof Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1421.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Core Inflation in the Advanced Economies: A RegionalPerspective∗Daniel O. Beltran† Julio L. Ortiz‡AbstractWe explore differences in the dynamics of core inflation between Europe and NorthAmerica using a Bayesian time series filter that decomposes the level of core inflationin the major advanced economies into regional, global, and country-specific compo-nents. We find a prominent role for both regional and global factors. Historically, thetwo regional components have at times diverged. Using reduced-form regressions, weexamine the economic drivers behind the changes in our estimated global and regionalcomponents of U.S. core inflation, focusing on the post-pandemic inflation surge andsubsequent pullback. The global component is associated with global supply frictionsand past energy shocks. The North American regional component is associated withlabor market tightness in the region.Key Words: Regional inflation. Dynamic Linear Model. Core inflation.JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, E31, F00∗We thank Shaghil Ahmed, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Thiago Ferreira, Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello,participants of the GW forecasting seminar, and other colleagues at the Federal Reserve Board for commentsand suggestions. Annika Johnson provided outstanding research assistance. The views expressed in thisnote are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of theBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of anyone else associated with the Federal ReserveSystem.†Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board, 20th and C St. NW, Washington, DC 20551.Email: daniel.o.beltran@frb.gov.‡Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board, 20th and C St. NW, Washington, DC 20551.Email: j