IMF-拉脱维亚共和国：若干问题（英）

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/273 REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SELECTED ISSUES This paper on the Republic of Latvia was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 31, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. September 2025 REPUBLIC OF LATVIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By European Department Prepared By Gianluigi Ferrucci, Bingjie Hu, Keyra Primus, and Can Ugur (all EUR) ENSURING ADEQUATE AND AFFORDABLE PENSIONS IN LATVIA _________________ 3 A. Pension System Overview ___________________________________________________________ 3 B. An Assessment of Pension Adequacy _______________________________________________ 6 C. Pension Projections _________________________________________________________________ 7 D. Conclusions and Recommendations _______________________________________________ 11 FIGURES 1. Asset Composition of Pension Plans ________________________________________________ 6 2. At-Risk-of-Poverty Rate of Population ______________________________________________ 6 3. Benefit Ratio and Replacement Rate ________________________________________________ 8 4. Implied Pension Expenditures, Fiscal Balance, and Public Debt Under Different Benefit Ratio (BR) Scenarios ___________________________________________________________ 9 5. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Under Pillar I vs Pillar II _____________________________ 10 6. Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Scenarios ___________________________________________ 12 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 15 ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY, FIRM DYNAMICS, AND PRODUCTIVITY IN LATVIA __ 17 A. Latvia’s Productivity Challenge _____________________________________________________ 17 B. The Labor Productivity Growth Decomposition Exercise ___________________________ 20 C. Discussion of the Results ___________________________________________________________ 23 D. Policy Implications _________________________________________________________________ 25 BOX 1. Firm Dynamism and Productivity Growth __________________________________________ 19 CONTENTS July 31, 2025 REPUBLIC OF LATVIA 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FIGURES 1. TFP Growth Decomposition ________________________________________________________________ 18 2. Variance of Marginal Revenue Product of Capital (MRPK) __________________________________ 18 3. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Latvian Firms ____________________________ 21 4. Decomposition of Labor Productivity Growth for Estonian Firms ___________________________ 22 5. Decompositi