世界银行-脆弱和受冲突影响的局势：相互交织的危机、多重脆弱性（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11210Fragile and Conflict-Affected SituationsIntertwined Crises, Multiple VulnerabilitiesSamuel HillJeetendra KhadanPeter SelcukDevelopment Economics Prospects GroupSeptember 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11210Home to more than 1 billion people, the 39 emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) classified as being in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) are plagued by instability and weak institutions. This hinders their ability to attain the robust, sustained economic growth needed for development. These economies exhibit lower per capita incomes, slower economic growth, and greater volatility than other developing countries. Conflicts impose a high human and economic toll on many economies clas-sified as FCS. High-intensity conflicts are associated with a cumulative loss in per capita GDP of about 20 percent five years after their onset, relative to pre-conflict projections. FCS economies experienced far deeper contractions than other EMDEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their recovery has been much weaker. About 70 percent of FCS economies are either at high risk of or already in debt distress—up from around 40 percent a decade ago. Employment growth continues to lag population growth. Tailored policies, reforms, and sustained global support are needed to expand opportunities for economic growth and job creation in FCS economies. Case studies from a diverse group of economies that were formerly afflicted by conflict in Africa, Asia, and Europe provide policy insights.This paper is a product of the Prospects Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at jeetendrak@@worldbank.org, pselcuk@worldbank.org, and sam.hill@outlook.com.au. Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities Samuel Hill, Jeetendra Khadan, and Peter Selcuk* Keywords: Fragility; conflict; po