IMF-世界经济碎片化背景下全球贸易中的发票货币模式（英）

Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, and Arnaud Mehl WP/25/178IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP* We would like to thank (without implying endorsement): George Apostolakis, Luca Dedola, Ricardo Felix, Luca Fosso, MartinSchmitz, Isabel Vansteenkiste. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those ofthe IMF, the ECB or the Eurosystem. They should not be reported as such.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/178IMF Working Paper Research Department Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy Prepared by Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, and Arnaud Mehl* Authorized for distribution by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel dataset on global trade invoicing currency and examines recent pattern shifts with a focus on geopolitical alignment. Using data for 132 countries from 1990 to 2023—including new coverage of the Chinese renminbi—we document five key findings. First, the US dollar remains dominant, with global invoicing shares broadly stable. Second, renminbi use has grown steadily and expanded beyond Asia, though it remains modest. Third, countries not geopolitically aligned with the US continue to rely on the dollar, though this reliance has declined in a few key economies. Fourth, since 2021, the correlation between the use of a given invoicing currency and the geopolitical distance to its issuer has become more negative, reflecting growing polarization. Fifth, there is no robust evidence consistent with effective policy initiatives to reduce dollar reliance in oil exports. These findings highlight the resilience of dominant currencies and suggest emerging fragmentation in invoicing patterns along geopolitical lines. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F31, F44. Keywords: Trade invoicing currency; dominant-currency paradigm; geopolitical alignment. Author’s E-Mail Address: eboz@imf.org ; anja.bruggen.external@ecb.europa.eu ; ccasas@imf.org ; georgios.georgiadis@ecb.europa.eu ; ggopinath@imf.org ; arnaud.mehl@ecb.europa.eu WORKING PAPERS Patterns of Invoicing Currency in Global Trade in a Fragmenting World Economy Prepared by Emine Boz, Anja Brüggen, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis,