IMF-全球价值链的重新定位：墨西哥的作用（英）

Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama, and Hugo Tuesta WP/25/180 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 SEP * “The authors would like to thank colleagues at the IMF, especially Nigel Chalk, Bikas Joshi, Dmitry Plotnikov, Chris Redl, MicheleRuta, Lorenzo Rotunno, Johanna Schauer, Monika Sztajerowska, and seminar participants at the Bank of Mexico for valuablecomments. The authors also thank Mengqi Wang and Swarnali Hannan for their guidance and sharing their tariff data. © 2025 International Monetary FundWP/25/180IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico Prepared by Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama, and Hugo Tuesta* Authorized for distribution by Bikas Joshi September 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The paper documents recent changes in trade flow dynamics between Mexico, the U.S. and China, focusing on the period around 2017-2023. Using product-level bilateral trade data, the paper studies recent trends in the composition of the origin of U.S. imports, notably that a reduction of imports from China has been accompanied by an increase in imports from Mexico and other trading partners in Asia. The paper also documents that while Mexican exports to the U.S. have significantly increased in recent years, Mexico is also importing more from the U.S. and various countries in Asia, consistent with Mexico’s deeper integration into global value chains. Furthermore, the paper presents evidence that FDI flows to Mexico since 2017, predominantly originated from the U.S., have increased more in economic sectors affected by the U.S. tariffs on imports from China, and that they have been mainly directed to regions in the North with well-established manufacturing networks with the U.S. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Arizala, Francisco, Tomohide Mineyama, and Hugo Tuesta. (2025) “Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico” IMF Working Papers WP/25/180.JEL Classification Numbers: F13, F14, O54, F60. Keywords: Trade diversion; Mexico; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics. Author’s E-Mail Address: farizala@imf.org, tmineyama@imf.org, htuesta@imf.org WORKING PAPERS Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico Prepared by Francisco Arizala, Tomohide Mineyama, and Hugo Tuesta IMF WORKING PAPERS Relocation of Global Value Chains: The Role of Mexico1 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents Introduction ...........