ITIF-减少联邦研发如何降低GDP增长（英）

itif.org How Reducing Federal R&D Reduces GDP Growth MEGHAN OSTERTAG | SEPTEMBER 2025 Cutting federal investments in R&D may appear to save billions in the budget, but it could cost the economy trillions. In fact, ITIF estimates that cutting federal R&D by 20 percent would cost the U.S. economy up to almost $1.5 trillion compared with China’s growth pace. KEY TAKEAWAYS Federal investments in R&D drive U.S. innovation, productivity, and economic growth.While cutting research funding may save taxpayers’ money in the short term, it incursgreater costs in the long term.Cutting federal R&D by 20 percent instead of keeping investments constant as a share ofGDP would reduce spending by $620 billion over 10 years—but it would shrink theeconomy by nearly $1 trillion and reduce tax revenues by close to $250 billion.China is rapidly expanding its investments in R&D and may have already surpassed theUnited States in total research investment. Cutting America’s public investments inresearch would amplify Chinese competitiveness in advanced technologies.R&D investment increases the number of patents filed, start-ups launched, and firms thatenter the export market, all of which are essential for American competitiveness.Federal investment in R&D is often used for research viewed as too risky for private firms,such as basic research, and “crowds-in” private sector investment in research.Seventy percent of federal R&D dollars flow to universities and labs, training Ph.D.candidates, and attracting top talent. Cutting R&D funding would weaken the researchworkforce of the United States.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION FOUNDATION | SEPTEMBER 2025 PAGE 2 CONTENTS Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 2 Importance of R&D ............................................................................................................. 4 Cuts to Federally Funded Research ...................................................................................... 6 R&D Expenditure Shortfall ............................................................................................... 7 How Federal R&D Grows the Economy .................................................................................. 9 Effects on GDP and Tax Revenue ...................................................................................... 9 Implications on U.S. Competitiveness ............................................................................. 11 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 11 Appendix: Methodology ..................................................................................................... 12 Endnotes .............................................