欧洲央行-劳动力市场变化对家庭抵押贷款的异质性影响（英）

Working Paper Series The heterogeneous impact of labor market shifts on household mortgage-taking Michele Cantarella, Ilja Kristian Kavonius Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3109 AbstractThis paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects householdcredit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find thatoccupational shifts negatively influence mortgage holding for households facing fa-vorable job market conditions, such as stable employment and income growth. Ourresults, robust to alternative specifications, suggest that when both individual andeconomy-wide career prospects are favorable, the opportunity costs of settling downgrow accordingly.JEL codes: G51, J24, D84, O15Keywords: Structural change, Job security, Household creditECB Working Paper Series No 31091Non-technical summaryThis paper investigates how structural changes in the labor market influence households’mortgage-taking. By analyzing data from the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS) and the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), weaim to understand the relationship between job market conditions and mortgage-taking.The EU-LFS provides detailed information on occupational growth, while the EU-SILCoffers a rich set of variables at both the individual and household levels.The research reveals that households holding favorable positions in the job market areless likely to hold mortgages if their occupation has also been growing at an economy-widelevel. This effect is particularly noticeable over a five-year period compared to a one-yearperiod. The study highlights that while permanent job contracts and longer job tenuregenerally increase the likelihood of having a mortgage (about 2.7% and 0.4% more likely),the positive impact of job permanency on mortgage-taking diminishes if the occupation isgrowing (about -3.5%). Additionally, past and future income changes influence mortgage-taking behavior (about 1.5% and 2.3%).However, households experiencing and, mostimportantly, expecting positive income changes are less likely to take on mortgages if theiroccupation is also growing (about -2.2% and -4.3%).We propose a general model to measure mortgage-taking for individuals in variousoccupations across different years and countries. This model includes variables such asjob tenure, job permanency, and past and future income changes. By interacting thesevariables with occupational growth, the study aims to capture the heterogeneous effectsof labor market shifts on mortgage-taking. The model also controls for individual andhousehold characteristics, including gender, age, education, income, household size, anddegree of urbanization.To address endogeneity concerns, we use a Shift-Share instrumental variable strategy.This involves instrumenting occupation