轻工制造行业25H1业绩综述：重视消费结构成长vs周期底部制造

2025年09月13日重视消费结构成长vs周期底部制造——轻工制造25H1业绩综述分析师史凡可傅嘉成曾伟褚远熙邮箱shifanke@stocke.com.cnfujiacheng@stocke.com.cnzengwei@stocke.com.cnchuyuanxi@stocke.com.cn证书编号S1230520080008S1230521090001S1230524090011S1230524090009行业评级：看好01rtone2消费结构分化，制造强者恒强31.11.1 复盘25H1业绩：超预期标的小结来看，消费主要体现在产品领先的出海消费成长（泡泡玛特、西锐、匠心家居、源飞宠物）+格局改善的内需软体家居（顾家家居、喜临门），制造海外布局领先及成本曲线优化的个股强者恒强（裕同科技、玖龙纸业、英科医疗）。 子赛道对比：包装板块综合最优，消费细分展现韧性•家居：25Q2收入同比+5.1%、归母净利润同比-2.8%。在以旧换新国补拉动下，25Q1-25Q2收入增速持续向好，软体兑现优于定制。•造纸： 25Q2板块收入同比-13.1%、归母净利润同比-143.4%，浆纸价格承压、收入利润略弱，后续改善可期。•包装：25Q2收入同比+13.8%、归母净利润同比+11.1%，在轻工子版块中表现最优，下游需求稳健、竞争格局向好、龙头纷纷出海。•文娱：25Q2收入同比+1.8%，归母净利润同比-10.1%，传统文具处于筑底阶段，IP谷子类处于业绩起量期。•个护：25Q2收入同比+14.0%，归母净利润同比+16.7%，超额标的多受益于新产品、新渠道、新客户等增量因素。 全年投资展望：1、新消费估值切换vs分化下沉:•1）新消费优势标的泡泡玛特、思摩尔国际、百亚股份、乖宝宠物、中宠股份逐渐迎来估值切换机遇。2）关注新品类赛道小而美标的，例如源飞宠物、诺邦股份、恒丰纸业等。2、传统消费软体家居优于定制:•软体竞争格局较好，且国补与软体契合度更高，预计25H2表现仍然更优，关注顾家家居、敏华控股、喜临门、慕思股份增长超额。3、制造优选成本逻辑vs周期底部:•1）成本逻辑+扩产周期基本面兑现确定性高，核心标的太阳纸业、英科医疗、众鑫股份、玖龙纸业。2）周期底部+出海提盈利能力的稳健品种，核心标的裕同科技、奥瑞金。4、出口代工预计Q3经营环比改善:•关注经营拐点显现、估值性价比较高的浙江自然、浩洋股份、致欧科技、永艺股份、嘉益股份等。 风险提示：国内消费修复不及预期、海外需求不及预期、地产行业修复不及预期、新兴消费行业竞争加剧、关税政策风险等41.21.2资料来源： Wind，浙商证券研究所表：轻工板块细分子版块的数据表现板块指标202020212022202320242023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2收入增速1.74%29.30%-3.13%0.68%-0.28%-9.48%2.09%4.93%7.52%9.32%-1.92%-4.42%-1.76%3.79%5.14%归母净利润增速60.70%-18.19%-7.50%22.66%-16.21%17.71%33.08%14.64%75.94%8.77%-8.57%-24.08%-41.00%10.78%-2.75%ROE9.51%9.30%8.75%10.10%8.17%1.60%3.62%3.33%1.58%1.67%3.14%2.45%0.93%1.84%2.98%毛利率32.70%28.34%29.51%32.26%30.81%29.98%32.34%33.48%32.44%30.77%31.75%30.98%29.87%29.81%30.83%净利率5.94%6.19%6.25%7.61%6.37%6.26%10.38%9.50%4.20%6.29%9.69%7.42%2.55%6.76%8.72%收入增速3.44%23.55%9.13%-7.04%-1.25%-7.92%-11.14%-6.01%-2.20%3.46%4.76%-3.99%-8.20%-13.04%-13.05%归母净利润增速7.85%38.86%-69.14%2.31%-136.60%-96.57%-61.56%26.59%161.78%2799.01%81.41%-74.80%-458.62%-91.72%-143.38%ROE8.93%10.74%3.22%3.30%-1.35%0.06%0.70%1.52%0.99%1.71%1.25%0.38%-4.77%0.15%-0.63%毛利率20.38%17.56%11.97%11.12%10.51%9.31%10.63%11.15%12.99%13.48%12.17%9.05%7.39%9.50%10.03%净利率7.02%7.25%2.05%2.10%-1.09%0.09%1.59%3.74%2.68%4.83%3.29%0.76%-13.16%0.05%-2.19%收入增速6.27%23.56%2.33%-7.02%2.55%-8.06%-4.29%-9.16%-7.63%1.99%-1.15%0.20%9.27%9.20%13.80%归母净利润增速0.17%13.31%-33.92%12.13%-16.81%-8.00%6.04%1.11%174.87%4.33%-20.59%-3.98%-188.98%19.70%11.14%ROE8.42%7.88%4.68%5.01%4.44%1.44%1.58%1.80%0.25%1.44%1.21%1.78%-0.15%1.78%1.37%毛利率21.69%17.75%16.86%18.87%19.04%17.98%18.56%19.44%18.94%18.92%18.61%19.27%19.09%17.46%17.49%净利率7.59%5.80%3.65%4.53%3.95%5.41%5.66%6.19%0.81%5.68%4.47%6.08%-0.50%6.38%4.51%收入增速13.30%18.67%7.51%12.10%7.64%4.38%12.55%12.45%25.36%11.09%10.73%8.34%2.65%2.42%1.85%归母净利润增速4.17%-41.26%40.68%3.77%-8.81%18.71%-9.65%15.03%21.81%4.10%-14.16%-15.12%-6.92%-6.95%-10.14%ROE8.74%5.77%7.18%7.99%6.82%2.14%2.04%2.58%1.13%2.00%1.74%2.08%1.01%1.77%1.51%毛利率23.30%22.12%19.47%18.88%19.16%20.43%19.33%20.19%16.07%21.00%19.54%19.25%17.39%21.14%19.77%净利率5.71%3.75%4.70%5.32%4.44%6.58%5.64%6.63%2.80%6.12%4.66%5.12%2.36%5.50%4.09%收入增速-28.37%-13.02%9.93%-3.