世界银行-早期预警覆盖率、接收决定因素和益处：调查可以告诉我们什么（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11199Early Warnings Coverage, Determinants of Reception, and BenefitsWhat Surveys Can Tell UsChloé BeaudetLouise Bernard Bramka Arga JafinoPaolo AvnerUrban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global DepartmentSeptember 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11199Early warning systems are a cornerstone of disaster risk reduction, enabling timely alerts and protective actions that save lives and reduce damages. Yet, despite their docu-mented cost-effectiveness and potential to bolster resilience, early warning system coverage remains uneven across coun-tries and within communities. Furthermore, there remains a gap in the literature around people-centered approaches to understand what drives early warning system coverage, the reception of warnings, and their realized benefits at the household level. This paper addresses that gap by leveraging four surveys conducted at different scales (international, national, and subnational) and focusing on different geo-graphic areas (urban versus rural) to examine early warning systems from a household perspective. Using the World Risk Poll, the paper first examines the determinants of early warning system coverage at the national level, highlighting the role of gross domestic product, disaster predictability, and the likelihood that a country is affected by a disaster. At the household level, the findings show that warning reception is influenced by socioeconomic status, dwelling location, and access to digital devices. Finally, the paper shows that receiving an early warning is strongly associated with higher perceived resilience, increased adoption of pre-ventive measures, and significantly lower casualty rates in disaster-affected areas. These findings underscore the urgent need to improve both the accessibility and effectiveness of early warning systems, particularly for vulnerable popula-tions in low-income and high-risk regions.This paper is a product of the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to d