美联储-不对称下的宏观经济结果评估：预期很重要（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries:Expectations MatterBrent Bundick, Isabel Cairo, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau2025-079Please cite this paper as:Bundick, Brent, Isabel Cairo, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau (2025). “Evaluating Macroeco-nomic Outcomes Under Asymmetries: Expectations Matter,” Finance and Economics Dis-cussion Series 2025-079. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.079.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Evaluating Macroeconomic Outcomes UnderAsymmetries: Expectations Matter∗Brent Bundick†Isabel Cair´o‡Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau§August 2025AbstractAsymmetries play an important role in many macroeconomic models. We showthat assumptions on household and firm expectations play a key role in determiningthe effects of these asymmetries on macroeconomic outcomes. If households and firmshave perfect foresight and hence do not account for the possibility of future shocks,then the implied longer-run averages and distributions for unemployment and inflationcan differ significantly from their rational expectations counterparts. We first derivethis result analytically under either an asymmetric monetary policy rule or a nonlinearPhillips curve before numerically examining some of the key nonlinearities featured inthe recent literature.JEL Classification: E32, E52, J64Keywords: Macroeconomic Asymmetries, Business Cycles, Expectations∗We thank Ben Johannsen for helpful discussions. Mariia Dzholos and Wesley Wasserburger providedexcellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not reflectthe views of the Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City or San Francisco or the Board of Governors of theFederal Reserve System.†Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Email: brent.bundick@kc.frb.org‡Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Email: isabel.cairo@frb.gov§Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Email: nicolas.petrosky-nadeau@sf.frb.org1IntroductionAsymmetries are inherent features of actual economies. Some common examples include theeffective lower bound on nominal interest rates, borrowing or collateral constraints, asym-metric policymaker preferences over macroeconomic outcomes, and nonlinear dynamics inthe labor market or in firm’s price-setting decisions. To examine their possible effects onmacroeconomic outcomes, a large body of academic literature builds macr