世界银行-降低交通基础设施对自然灾害脆弱性的经济案例（英）

Acknowledgments: This note is one of a series of analytic and advisory outputs of the Brazil Mobility and Logistics for Sustainability and Resilience project (P179908) conducted under the guidance of Bianca Bianchi Alves (Practice Manager, Transport, Latin America and the Caribbean) and Luis Alberto Andres (Program Leader, Infrastructure, Brazil). The team thanks colleagues Jing Xiong (Senior Transport Specialist), Alejandro Hoyos (Senior Transport Specialist), and Frederico Pedroso (Disaster Risk Management Specialist) for their constructive peer review. This note summarizes analytic findings from Guillaume L’Her, Amy Schweikert, Xavier Espinet, Lucas Eduardo Araújo de Melo, and Mark Deinert. (2024). “Transport resilience and adaptation to climate impacts – a case study on agricultural transport in Brazil,” Complex Networks and their Applications XII, (pp.243-250). http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53503-1_20 THE ECONOMIC CASE FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE TO NATURAL HAZARDS BRAZIL TRANSPORT SECTOR NOTE June 2025 Brazil’s transport assets and the social and economic activities they support are exposed to multiple climate and natural hazards. Climate change is increasing this exposure, impacting critical corridors such as those used for soybean export. Proactive investments and maintenance programs for climate adaptation of critical transport assets will help Brazil avoid costly delays/detours and expensive rebuild of key infrastructure. These initiatives have high return on investment. Additionally, effective emergency response mechanisms in the transport sector are critical to minimize economic losses due to traffic disruptions. Tais Fonseca and Joanna Moody Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized1 CONTEXT The large and diverse geography of Brazil results in a range of climate and natural hazards that threaten the country’s economic and social development (Figure 1). In 2021, national annual losses from natural hazards were already estimated at US$ 3.9 billion,1 and climate change is expected to increase the country’s exposure to climate and natural hazards in the coming years.2 Flooding and intense precipitation have been the most damaging disasters in Brazil. Since 1991, these hazards account for more than 70 percent of all material damages amounting to R$ 118 billion.3 Landslides are also significant, accounting for 10 percent of damages. Figure 1. Historic and current natural hazards in Brazil For Brazil’s transport infrastructure, key assets such as roadways, railways, waterways, seaports, airports, and bridges are exposed to climate and natural hazards. Among these hazards, floods, landslides, fire, and drought present the greatest risks to Brazil’s transport infrastructure and the social and economic activities they support.4 An asset-level analysis of exposu