联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易更新（2025年9月）：贸易政策的不确定性笼罩着全球市场（英）

1S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 5Global tradeupdate Facts and figures©Adobe Stock - akarawitTrade policy uncertainty looms over global marketsPolicy Insights©Adobe Stock - tonjungMonthly publication analysing trade policy and global trade data.S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 5Global tradeupdateKEY TAKEAWAYSGlobal tensions and economic challenges are fueling trade policy uncertainty, which in turn drives trade volatility and increases risks for trade-dependent economies.Uncertainty is often more disruptive than tariffs, as firms can adapt to rising costs but struggle to plan around unpredictable policy shifts.Small firms and poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they lack the capacity to respond to unpredictable trade environments.Stable and predictable trade policies are critical to sustaining development and growth through international trade.S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 5Global tradeupdate Policy insights2Policy uncertainty is rarely accidental; it is often a deliberate or inevitable outcome of governance in a complex world. As governments respond to shifting domestic priorities and mounting global pressures, they are frequently compelled to recalibrate their policies. These policy adjustments, while necessary, often create uncertainty—both about the scale of the changes and the timing of their implementation. On the international arena, such uncertainty is often amplified by the ripple effects of follow-up measures, creating a feedback loop that clouds global predictability. Moreover, policy uncertainty is not always a byproduct of indecision; it can be a strategic tool. Governments may employ ambiguity to test reactions or gain leverage in negotiations. While this tactic may serve their negotiating interests, it comes at a cost: it heightens risk for firms and investors and undermines the reliability of mechanisms for international coordination. Historically, trade policy uncertainty has been relatively contained. For decades, multilateral and regional agreements acted as stabilizers, discouraging abrupt shifts and providing predictability to global markets. Surges in uncertainty were typically episodic, linked to specific events such as regional conflicts, the disruptions caused by COVID-19, regional fragmentation like Brexit or the US–China trade tensions.As of 2025, trade policy uncertainty has escalated to unprecedented levels. The surge reflects a mix of economic and non-economic factors: industrial policy and competition for critical raw materials are driving rounds of supportive trade measures, while persistent concerns over trade imbalances are increasing calls for corrective trade measures. Trade policy is also increasingly used to pursue domestic political, security, and environmental goals unilaterally, thus prompting responses from trading partners. With rule-based trading systems weakened, there is little to constrain these shifts. More importantly, as countries face the need to update trade rules, strategic ambiguity may become a more w