世界银行-印尼煤炭转型脆弱性的空间分析（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11188Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in IndonesiaEmcet Oktay TaşEzgi CanpolatMegan ColeAbidah SetyowatiJasminah Woodhouse Social Development Global DepartmentAugust 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11188This paper provides a spatial analysis of coal transition vul-nerability in Indonesia. It uses a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative data on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to coal transition, summarized in a Coal Transition Vulnerability Index, with qualitative insights from stakeholder consultations and interviews. The paper explores the socioeconomic implications of depen-dence on coal and potential shifts in production patterns for communities and workers. It finds that vulnerability to coal transition is geographically concentrated, with provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Suma-tra exhibiting high susceptibility due to their dependence on coal mining and coal-fired power generation. Case stud-ies and qualitative findings further illustrate the localized nature of vulnerability, and the potential challenges faced by communities due to impending mine closures. The paper underscores significant socioeconomic and local impacts, particularly on employment within the coal value chain; highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable groups, including women, youth, indigenous communities, and informal workers; and highlights the need for inclusive and tailored strategies for managing the socioeconomic impacts of coal transition.This paper is a product of the Social Development Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at etas@worldbank.org. Spatial Analysis of Coal Transition Vulnerability in Indonesia Emcet Oktay Taş, Ezgi Canpolat, Megan Cole, Abidah Setyowati, and Jasminah Woodhouse* JEL Classifications: Q38, Q40, L70, L72. Keywords: Energy; Non-Renewable Re