关税如何影响能源转型？（英）

July 2025Electric Power & Natural Gas PracticeHow might tariffs affect the energy transition?The possibility of tariffs brings uncertainty to the clean-energy industry. How much could higher tariffs matter?by Christian Therkelsen, Diego Hernandez Diaz, and Humayun Taiwith Inés UresThe clean-energy landscape today looks bumpy, marked by broad uncertainties across a fast-changing space. Global decarbonization and European energy independence rely on the deployment of clean-energy technology. Yet geopolitical and technological developments are creating potential disruptions, shifting focus from a rapid energy transition to other priorities, including the race to lead in gen AI, increased defense budgets in European countries, and new trade alliances.Today’s evolving tariff environment piles on top of the uncertainties and has the potential to significantly affect the global economy, energy and transportation demand, commodity prices, and supply chains.To help executives think through the possible effects of higher tariffs, we considered three potential tariff scenarios and their likely impact on the supply chain across five clean-energy technologies—solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, battery storage, and electric vehicles (EVs)—and we projected the capital expenditure and energy capacity outlook to 2035.Our analysis considers the United States and the European Union1 and does not include any effects on energy demand that could occur from a slowdown in economic growth resulting from tariffs. It also does not incorporate policy changes other than tariffs—including export controls or changes to subsidies—whether they result from ongoing tariff scenarios or not. We don’t suggest any scenario is more or less likely than another.Our results are notable both for what may change and what likely won’t. Moderate tariffs alone would likely have limited effect on the adoption of clean technologies, especially in Europe. However, under sustained application of the highest-tariff scenario we considered, by 2035, renewable-energy adoption could stall in the United States, and solar and wind adoption could soften in Europe.1 The European Union in this analysis includes the 27 European Union countries plus Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.Under sustained application of the highest-tariff scenario, by 2035, renewable-energy adoption could stall in the United States and solar and wind adoption could soften in Europe.2How might tariffs affect the energy transition?Our analysis indicates that only in a scenario of very high tariffs could the energy landscape change substantively. More important, the tariffs that have been applied and then paused against the fast-moving backdrop of spring 2025 as this analysis was developed may meet or approach this threshold for change. Regardless of the scenario, these five technologies are still poised to expand through 2035 and beyond. However, across the board, tariffs likely mean clean-energy technologies will cost mo