英文【国际能源署】一组测量连续变量概率预测有效值的新工具

Task 16 Solar Resource for High Penetration and Large Scale ApplicationsPVPSJOURNAL ARTICLEA Set of New Tools toMeasure the Effective Valueof Probabilistic Forecasts ofContinuous VariablesForecastingJune 2025Task 16 Solar Resource – A Set of New Tools to Measure the Effective Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Continuous Variables What is IEA PVPS TCP? The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration. The programme is made up of 6.000 experts across government, academia, and industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies. The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) is one of the TCP’s within the IEA and was established in 1993. The mission of the programme is to “enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member, which designates distinct ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas. The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The European Commission, Solar Power Europe and the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore are also members. Visit us at: www.iea-pvps.org What is IEA PVPS Task 16? The objective of Task 16 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme is to lower barriers and costs of grid integration of PV and lowering planning and investment costs for PV by enhancing the quality of the forecasts and the resources assessments. DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries CITATION Le Gal La Salle, J.; David, M.; Lauret, P. A Set of New Tools to Measure the Effective Value of Probabilistic Forecasts of Continuous Variables. Forecasting 2025, 7, 30. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast7020030 IMAGE CREDITS Carl Attard from Pexels INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME A Set of New Tools to Measure the Effective Value of Probabil