ACCA-全球经济状况调查报告：2025年第二季度（英）

Global economic conditions survey report: Q2, 2025.GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q2, 2025Executive summary 2Confidence rose somewhat in Western Europe and North America but fell sharply in Asia Pacific. Confidence in North America rose in Q2 (see Chart 2), amid some improvement in sentiment among U.S.-based accountants, but it remains depressed by historical standards, and the other key indicators for the region are at low levels historically. There was another moderate gain in confidence in Western Europe, aided by a further improvement in the UK from its record low in Q4 2024. Nonetheless, confidence in the region is still low by historical standards. Meanwhile, there was a sharp fall in confidence in Asia Pacific, erasing the gains made in Q1 2025. The deterioration in the backdrop for global trade, amid major changes in U.S. trade policy, was likely the key factor weighing on sentiment. At the time of the survey, many countries in the region faced the threat of large additional increases in U.S. import tariffs once the 90-day tariff pauses ended on 9 July.Global cost pressures eased according to accountants, although there are divergent regional pressures. The proportion of North American respondents reporting increased operating costs eased slightly, although remaining on the high side historically after the large increase in Q1 – which likely reflected the rise in import tariffs, increasing the risk that firms may attempt to raise prices over coming months. Except for Western Europe, cost pressures don’t look concerning in the other regions (see Chart 5).For the first time, geopolitics topped accountants' global risk priorities in Q2: economic fears tied with regulatory and compliance risks as the second highest risk priority (see Chart 18). Talent scarcity and cybersecurity remain critical but were slightly less prominent this quarter. Climate change, fraud and supply chain risks remained lower down the agenda for respondents, suggesting a renewed focus on macro-external volatility, with boards and executives reacting to intensifying global conflicts, regulatory unpredictability and economic pressure.The GECS was not indicative of a sharp slowing in global growth in Q2, despite heightened uncertainty: global growth has generally proved quite resilient in the first half of 2025, despite the large increases in U.S. tariffs and massive rise in trade policy uncertainty. While the key GECS indicators are certainly not pointing to a global economy in rude health, with confidence in particular remaining low, neither are they suggesting that a major downswing is imminent. Nevertheless, with higher tariffs likely to push U.S. inflation higher over coming months, and as uncertainty and tariffs weigh on the U.S. and global economies, some slowing in global growth looks likely over the second half of 2025. The extent of the slowing will depend on developments in the U.S. economy and in its trade policy, as well as geopolitics.Chart 1 GEC