深度：美国向中国出售H200的影响

EMERGING TECHNOLOGYShould the US Sell Hopper Chips to China?美国应该向中国出售 Hopper 芯⽚吗？Assessing the impacts of exporting the H200 or H100 AI chipsDecember 7th 2025By , , , and Executive summary  执⾏摘要Last month, the Trump administration decided not to export a version of NVIDIA’sflagship Blackwell AI chips (such as the rumored “B30A” chip) to the People’sRepublic of China (henceforth “China”), with President Trump stating “We will notlet anybody have [the most advanced AI chips] other than the United States.”Now, the administration is expected to convene a high-level meeting to decidewhether to authorize the export of NVIDIA’s H200 chips to China.上个⽉，特朗普政府决定不向中华⼈⺠共和国（以下简称“中国”）出⼝英伟达的旗舰 Blackwell AI 芯⽚的⼀个版本（例如传闻中的“B30A”芯⽚），特朗普总统表示“我们不会让任何⼈拥有（除美国以外的）最先进的 AI 芯⽚。” 现在，政府预计将召集⼀次⾼级别会议，以决定是否授权将英伟达的 H200 芯⽚出⼝到中国。Released in March 2024, the H200 is NVIDIA’s best AI chip from the previousSaif Khan Tao Burga Tim FistGeorgia Adamsonhttps://ifp.org/should-the-us-sell-hopper-chips-to-china/2025/12/9 07:46⻚码# 1/51“Hopper” generation and is an upgraded version of the H100 chip. Much likecutting-edge Blackwell chips, Hoppers use TSMC’s 4nm manufacturing processtechnology. Despite being a previous-generation AI chip, the H200 and the H100will likely be highly useful for frontier AI workloads throughout 2026:H200 于 2024 年 3 ⽉发布，是 NVIDIA 之前“霍普”世代中最好的AI 芯⽚，是 H100 芯⽚的升级版。与最先进的 Blackwell 芯⽚类似，霍普采⽤台积电的 4nm 制程技术。尽管是上⼀代 AI 芯⽚，H200 和 H100 在 2026 年期间很可能仍对应前沿 AI ⼯作负载⾮常有⽤：As of December 2025, 18 of the 20 most powerful publicly documentedGPU clusters in the world primarily used Hopper chips, including all of thetop 7. Hoppers currently represent just over half as much installed AIcompute as Blackwells.截⾄ 2025 年 12 ⽉，全球公开记录的 20 个最强⼤ GPU 集群中有 18 个主要使⽤霍普芯⽚，其中包括排名前 7 的全部集群。霍普⽬前代表的已安装 AI 计算量略多于 Blackwell 的⼀半。Previous generations of AI chips have remained in use for frontier modeltraining for roughly four years. If this trend holds for Hoppers, they will likelybe used for frontier training throughout 2026 — especially the H200, whichwas released in late 2024.以往⼏代 AI 芯⽚在前沿模型训练中的使⽤寿命⼤约为四年。如果这⼀趋势对霍普仍然适⽤，它们很可能在整个 2026 年继续⽤于前沿训练——尤其是于 2024 年底发布的 H200。Permitting export of meaningful volumes of advanced Hopper chips to Chinawould have six key implications:允许向中国出⼝⼤量先进霍普芯⽚将带来六个关键影响：https://ifp.org/should-the-us-sell-hopper-chips-to-china/2025/12/9 07:46⻚码# 2/511. The decision would be a substantial departure from the Trumpadministration’s current export control strategy, which seeks to denypowerful AI compute to strategic rivals. The H200 would be almost 6x aspowerful as the H20 — a chip that requires an export license to China andhas been approved for export in only limited quantities.这⼀决定将⼤幅偏离特朗普政府当前旨在剥夺战略对⼿强⼤AI 算⼒的出⼝管制策略。H200 的性能⼏乎是 H20 的 6 倍——⽽ H20 是⼀款对华出⼝需申请许可且仅在有限数量下获批出⼝的芯⽚。2. China would have access to chips that outperform any chip its companiescan domestically produce, and at much higher quantities. Huawei is notplanning to produce an AI chip matching the H200 until Q4 2027 at theearliest.