Barclays_The_Macro_Wrap_All_eyes_on_Jackson_Hole

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research AnalystAll research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9.The Macro WrapAll eyes on Jackson HoleThe market expects a September rate cut. We do not.The Macro Wrap is your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research.• All eyes are focused on the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Scott Bessent’s recentdovish rate comments - compounded by two dissenting votes at the July FOMC meeting,soft payroll numbers and a surprise pick for the Fed – have led markets to price in aSeptember rate cut. We disagree. Despite sharp downward revisions to jobs data, recentdevelopments in unemployment and inflation are unlikely to shift Powell's stancesignificantly. Although we see the September meeting as a close call, we maintain our viewof a single 25bp cut in December.• The UK labour market is showing some early signs of stabilisation: employmentcontraction has eased, unemployment appears to have peaked, and earnings growth isslowing. We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.7% y/y. Barclays UK Spend Trendssignals show consumer spending over the past four weeks is up 2.4% y/y.• In China, data diverged. Government bond issuance supported total social financing, butprivate credit demand slumped and retail sales slowed materially in July. CPI narrowlyavoided deflation, while PPI came in weaker than expected. We continue to forecastbelow-consensus GDP growth of 4.5% for 2025. We expect growth momentum to moderatefrom 4.1% q/q saar in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3, before recovering to 2.5% in Q4 as incrementalpolicy stimulus kicks in.• In Brazil, the possibility of economic change is anchoring local markets. A clear shift inpower could trigger an overshoot in rates, though a delicate fiscal inheritance may limit theupside.• "Major global uncertainty indices faded risks induced by the start of the war in Ukraine…currently there seems to be no global war-related premia in financial markets." - MarekRaczko, in War in Ukraine: Positioning for a changeFICC ResearchMacro PMG18 August 2025Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, USJill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, USSharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7