2025年全球消费者展望报告（英）

The World Consumer Outlook15th May10am ET | 4pm CETCHIEF ECONOMISTS ROUND TABLEConsumer Spending in the times ofGlobal UncertaintySpeakers and DiscussantsReshma SheorajIndermit GillChief Economist & Senior Vice President for Development EconomicsThe World Bank GroupHomi KharasWorld Data LabCo-Founder &Chief EconomistAnu MadgavkarMcKinsey & CompanyMcKinsey Global Institute PartnerAlex BoerschDeloitte EuropeChief Economist & Head of ResearchVice President of Strategic EngagementsWorld Data LabModeratorSpeakersWhat we’ll cover12How things have changedHow expectations have changed3Different scenarios$113 T(2.9%)GDP(IMF projection)Total Spending$63.7 T(3.1%)ConsumerClass Spending$60.3 T(3.4%)Nominal USD2025The Outlook for 2025The global consumer class will spend $60.3T in 2025$21 T$16 T$15 TConsumer Class Spending 2025$9 TNominal USDConsumer ClassOtherAPAC$5.4 T$6.5 T$2.3 T$1.9 Tnon-EU$2.0 T$10.3 T$2.4 TOtherRoW$5.3 T$1.2 T$1.2 T$1.1 TConsumer Class Spending 2025$60.3T+106M(4.4B)+$2T($60.3T) 2025World Consumer Outlook 2024+116M(4.3B)+$2.5T($58.3T)ConsumersConsumer SpendingNominal USDConsumer Class% of GrowthConsumer class spending growth 2024-202546% American63% 45+ year-olds57% Rich+$2 T Consumer SpendingConsumer Spending Growth$2.5T(4.5%)Decomposing2025 Spending GrowthExchange RatesInflation20242025$2.0T(3.4%)Real Growth-$1.6T(-2.8%)$1.4T(2.4%)$2.2T(3.8%)Nominal USDConsumer Class-$2.3T(-4.1%) $3.2T(5.6%) $1.7T(3.0%) Inflation is expected to be lower in 2025 than 2024 Real Growth is expected to be lower than in 2024The IMF assumption is for a continuingly stronger dollar in 2025Changing Expectations of Consumer Class Spending 2025January 2025$61.4 T(+$3.0 T)+5.1%$60.3 T(+$2.0 T)+3.4%NowNominal USDConsumer ClassNominal USDConsumer ClassJanuary 2025$61.37 TNow20252024$60.26 T-$0.10 T$58.40 T$58.30 T-$1.10 TConsumer Class Spending2024 Rebasing2025 RevisionsWith new IMF projections, spending revisions are mostly negative in 2025Europe, APAC, and the rest of the world all see revisions downwardsNominal USDConsumer ClassSpending Revision (in Billions)Consumer Class spending revisions in 2025 China’s consumer class spending is revised down $300 billionAPAC RevisionsNominal USDConsumer ClassSpending Revision (in Billions)Consumer Class spending revisions in 2025 The UK and Poland show stronger than expected growth, while Germany and France see the largest downward revisionsEurope RevisionsNominal USDConsumer ClassSpending Revision (in Billions)Consumer Class spending revisions in 2025 While the US is growing by $115 billion due to increased inflation revisions, China’s downward revision mostly stems from its deflationUS and China RevisionsUSD +$115 BExchange RatesInflationReal GrowthNominal USDConsumer ClassUSD -$301 BRevisionsin 2025-$158 B-$27 B-$175 B-$98 BScenario AnalysisImpact of Global Uncertainty●Monetary Policy: conditions stabilize or ease due to improved confidence.●Fiscal Policy: US reduces debt via reforms; EU increases public investment ●Productivity