IMF-加勒比地区的潜在增长和生产力（英）

Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Masahiro Nishida WP/25/157IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 AUG* The authors would like to thank Diego Gutiérrez and Spencer Siegel for excellent research assistance, and thank Rodrigo Valdes,Christoph Duenwald, Sami Naceur, Camilo Tovar, Emine Boz, David Moore, Janne Hukka, Jongsoon Shin, Eugenio Cerutti,Antonio Garcia Pascual, Diether Wolfgang Beuermann Mendoza, Sylvia Eva Dohnert de Lascurain, Ricardo Sierra, Jiang Beryl Li, Michael Veall, Claney Lattie, and the seminar participants at the International Monetary Fund and at the 59th Annual Meetings of the Canadian Economics Association for helpful suggestions. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/157IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean Prepared by Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Masahiro Nishida* Authorized for distribution by Christoph Duenwald August 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal a broad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor productivity. Linking these factors to firm-level data, we identify significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through the efficient reallocation of resources between firms and the removal of firm-level structural obstacles. Addressing issues such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensing and permits are associated with higher aggregate welfare. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Amundsen, A., Chen, S., Guérin, P., Kilic Celik, S., and Nishida, M. (2025). Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper 2025/157. JEL Classification Numbers: D24; D61; J24; O47 Keywords: Potential Growth; Allocative Efficiency; Firm-level Analysis; Caribbean Author’s E-Mail Address: aamundsen@imf.org; ychen2@imf.org; pguerin@imf.org; skiliccelik@imf.org; mnishida@wisc.edu Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 2 Related Literature ...................................