2025商用车市场的未来及OEM行动必要性研究（英）-德勤

The Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to ActJuly 2025IntroductionExecutive summaryEmerging truck industry trendsKey uncertainties driving the futurePotential scenarios resulting from the trendsScenario impact on the truck value chainFinancial consequences and no-regret movesContacts0304051016202434Historically, heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) OEMs have operated in a comparatively stable and profitable market environment. Their success has largely stemmed from a business model anchored in long-term B2B relationships, proven diesel technologies, and a strong focus on reliability, uptime, and performance. Innovation has typically followed a pragmatic, evolutionary path, guided by customer priorities – primarily total cost of ownership (TCO) and operational durability. In many ways, HCV OEMs have benefited from slow-changing customer preferences, conservative investment cycles, and proven product portfolios across regions. These factors have enabled them to maintain healthy margins, streamline operations, and focus on incremental improvement rather than disruptive change. However, this once-steady model is now under mounting pressure, driven by a convergence of transformational trends and growing strategic ambiguity.The transition toward zero-emission transport, regulatory tightening around CO₂ emissions and pollutants, and increasing digitalization are reshaping both product requirements and value creation models. At the same time, the traditional vehicle ownership model is being challenged by the rise of service-based models, with fleet customers seeking flexibility, uptime guarantees, and integrated digital solutions. Further adding to the complexity are geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain disruptions, and volatile input costs, all of which introduce new operational risks and investment challenges and force HCV OEMs to reassess their strategic positioning. This study evaluates four potential strategic scenarios that may be the industry’s future, each with distinct implications for product strategy, operating models, and financial requirements. Before diving into scenario-specific analyses and impacts, it also identifies a set of “no-regret” moves - areas where OEMs must act regardless of which future unfolds.IntroductionThe Future of the Commercial Vehicle Market and the Need for OEMs to Act | Introduction03Industry Transformation UnderwayThe commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a disruptive shift driven by decarbonization, digitalization, regulatory pressures, and evolving customer expectations - forcing OEMs to rethink business models, portfolios, and capabilities.Four strategic scenarios to prepare forBy 2035, OEMs may face one of four distinct market scenarios - ranging from traditional ownership to full truck-as-a-service (TaaS), and from high product complexity to full standardization - each with unique operational & financial implications.Truck-as-a-Service gains momentumTaaS is emerging as a compelling