世界银行-工程乌克兰的经济奇迹（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11174Engineering Ukraine’s WirtschaftswunderUfuk AkcigitFurkan KilicSomik LallSolomiya ShpakDevelopment EconomicsDevelopment Policy TeamJuly 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11174As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder —a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and insti-tutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bed-rock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.This paper is a product of the Development Policy Team, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at uakcigit@uchicago.edu, furkankilic@uchicago.edu, slall1@worldbank.org, and sshpak@worldbank.org.Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder*†Ufuk AkcigitUniversity of Chicago, Growth AcademyFurkan KilicUniversity of Chicago, Growth AcademySomik LallWorld Bank, Growth AcademySolomiya ShpakWorld Bank, Growth AcademyJuly 28, 2025AbstractAs Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineerits own Wirts