欧洲央行-手到口银行：存款流入和边际放贷倾向（英）

Working Paper Series Hand-to-mouth banks: deposit inflows and the marginal propensity to lend ECB – Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme Felix Corell Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3085 ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme This paper has been produced under the ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship programme. This programme was launched in 2003 in the context of the ECB-CFS Research Network on “Capital Markets and Financial Integration in Europe”. It aims at stimulating high-quality research on the structure, integration and performance of the European financial system. The Fellowship programme is named after Baron Alexandre Lamfalussy, the first President of the European Monetary Institute. Mr Lamfalussy is one of the leading central bankers of his time and one of the main supporters of a single capital market within the European Union. Each year the programme sponsors five young scholars conducting a research project in the priority areas of the Network. The Lamfalussy Fellows and their projects are chosen by a selection committee composed of Eurosystem experts and academic scholars. Further information about the Network can be found at http://www.eufinancial-system.org and about the Fellowship programme under the menu point “fellowships”. ECB Working Paper Series No 30851AbstractIn modern macroeconomics, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory incomeshocks is a central object of interest. This paper empirically explores a parallel concept inbanking: the marginal propensity to lend out of unsolicited deposit inflows (MPLD). Usingcounty-level dividend payouts as an instrument for deposit inflows, I estimate the MPLDfor U.S. banks and show that before QE, the average bank operated “hand-to-mouth” — ittransformed approximately every dollar of deposit inflow into new loans, consistent withtight liquidity constraints. However, since then, the MPLD has dropped to 0.35. Moreover,the MPLD decreases in banks’ cash-to-asset ratio and deposit market power. The findingssuggest that the QE-induced abundant reserves regime significantly relaxed liquidity con-straints for the majority of banks, but did not eliminate them entirely.Keywords: Banking, deposits, loans, money creation, reservesJEL Classification: G21, E42, E51ECB Working Paper Series No 30852Non-technical SummaryA central concept in macroeconomics is the marginal propensity to consume (MPC): how muchhouseholds increase their consumption when they receive a windfall income. A high MPC of-ten signals that households are liquidity-constrained — so-called “hand-to-mouth” consumers.This paper applies the same logic to banks and introduces the concept of the marginal propen-sity to lend out of deposits (MPLD): how much new lending banks generate in response tounexpected, unsolicited deposit inflows. Like the MPC, the MPLD serves as an i