世界银行-曼谷城市热量时空特征建模（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11158Modeling Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Urban Heat in BangkokJuan A. AceroVivek K. SinhSteven L. RubinyiUrban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global DepartmentJune 2025 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11158Urban areas accumulate heat, developing distinct urban climates that differ from the regional climate, leading to elevated mean air temperatures within cities. In tropical climates, such as Bangkok, this urban heat can contribute to high levels of heat stress. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) using dynamic cli-mate modeling (WRF, v4.2). The analysis focuses on three distinct climatic periods: the cool and dry season (Novem-ber–February), the hot and dry season (March–May), and the wet monsoon season (June–October). Results indicate that during sunrise in the cool and dry season, urban temperatures can be up to 6.4°C higher than those in surrounding rural areas. The highest temperature differ-ences (>4°C) occur at night during this season, with over 50% of BMA’s urban area and population experiencing sus-tained exposure to these elevated temperatures. In contrast, the smallest temperature differences occur in the hot and dry season, despite it being the hottest overall, due to low soil moisture limiting rural cooling. Under specific condi-tions, an urban cool island (Turban < Turban) may develop during the daytime. Compact urban areas exhibit the most significant heating, although vegetated areas within BMA are also affected. These findings support the design of tar-geted mitigation strategies.This paper is a product of the Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at srubinyi@worldbank.org. Modeling Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Urban Heat in Bangkok∗ Juan A. Acero,