2025年度经济报告：在不确定和分裂中维持稳定（英）-国际清算银行

7BIS Annual Economic Report 2025I. Sustaining stability amid uncertainty and fragmentationIntroductionThe prospects for the global economy have become much more uncertain and unpredictable in recent months, marking a notable departure from the relative optimism of the previous year when a soft landing was in sight. Trade disruptions now threaten to reshape the global economic landscape, as long-standing political and economic relationships are being questioned. The new US trade policy, with its unknown eventual scope and impact, has elevated measures of economic uncertainty to levels typically associated with crises and sparked high volatility in financial markets. As a result, the outlook for global growth has been downgraded, with mixed implications for inflation across economies. These developments are unfolding in a world already grappling with significant vulnerabilities. Trade-related challenges are likely to reinforce pre-existing shifts towards greater economic fragmentation and protectionism, further exacerbating the decade-long decline in economic and productivity growth across many economies. Coupled with ageing populations and emerging labour shortages, trade fragmentation could further reduce supply flexibility, leaving economies more prone to inflation pressures. Meanwhile, in several jurisdictions, high public debt makes the financial system vulnerable to interest rate rises, while reducing governments’ ability to respond to adverse developments. Adding to these challenges, the shift of financial intermediation from banks to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) and towards financing public debt has heightened liquidity risks in bond markets, raising the potential for financial stability risks to emerge outside traditional banking systems.Addressing these challenges requires efforts by policymakers on multiple fronts. Structural policy needs to address low productivity growth and improve the ability of the economy to scale up production and reallocate resources. The removal of barriers to trade, both within and across borders, would help offset the damage from the ongoing trade conflict. In addition to supporting structural reforms, fiscal policy needs to adjust to ensure debt sustainability and restore the space for supporting the economy when needed. The regulation and supervision of the financial system must take into account the shifting nature of financial risks arising from the structural Key takeaways• The outlook for global growth deteriorated amid heightened uncertainty and the fraying of long-established economic ties. Financial markets experienced significant volatility in response to frequent, unpredictable trade policy announcements.• The baseline outlook of soft economic growth and moderate inflation is clouded by heightened policy uncertainty, while existing vulnerabilities in the real economy and financial system have the potential to amplify the negative impact of shocks and adverse shifts in policy. • Policymake