IMF-长期弹性和增长的宏观经济框架（英）

A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, and Christine Richmond WP/25/135 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUL * The authors would like to thank Dora Benedek, Emanuele Massetti, Abdel Senhadji, Vitor Gaspar, and FAD seminar participantsfor helpful comments, and suggestions. Immense thank you to Abdel Senhadji for his guidance throughout this project. Specialthanks to Lahcen Bounader, Chen Chen, Qiaoe Chen, Arika Kayastha, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, and Johanna Tiedemann for valuable inputs and assistance provided at earlier stages of the project. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/135IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth Prepared by David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, Christine Richmond* Authorized for distribution by Dora Benedek July 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper describes a macroeconomic framework integrating disasters in the analysis of growth and long-term economic resilience. The framework is a dynamic growth model incorporating endogenous human and physical capital accumulation, fiscal policy interventions, and public debt dynamics. The model allows for flexible analyses of slow and fast onset climate impacts and fiscal policy reforms to foster sustainable long-term growth and adaptation, including enhanced spending on resilient investment and non-structural adaptation options. Focusing on adaptation policies, specifically on investing in resilient infrastructure, we present the country cases of Benin and Jamaica, examining tradeoffs and synergies in macro-fiscal policies for addressing sustainable long-term growth and the impacts of disasters.* JEL Classification Numbers: O11; F43; F47; E22; E62; Q54 Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Adaptation; Debt Sustainability; Public Investment; Natural Disasters; Economic Growth Authors’ E-Mail Addresses: dbartolini@imf.org; aceber@imf.org; vcerra@gmail.com; pjuarros@imf.org; yujinkim.ms@gmail.com; jmochizuki@imf.org; crichmond@imf.org * Disasters here refer to extreme events and the analysis includes heightened frequency of such shocks as a result of climatechange.WORKING PAPERS A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and Growth Prepared by David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Ki