IMF-19世纪的金融繁荣与萧条：德国的格伦德克里斯有多糟糕？（英）

Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise? Johannes Wiegand WP/25/136 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUL* This paper could not have been written without Mico Mrkaic, who generously shared the Stata code he wrote for Berger et al.(2015) with the author. I am also grateful to Mico, Carsten Burhop, and Margrit Grabas for helpful comments and discussions.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/136IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise? Prepared by Johannes Wiegand* Authorized for distribution by Thomas Helbling July 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The Gründerkrise of the 1870s marks Germany’s first major experience with financial boom and bust. The assessment of its real impact has, however, been hampered by the non-ability of comprehensive and reliable national accounts data for the 19th century. This short paper seeks to overcome such difficulties by combining common factor analysis as proposed by Sarferaz and Uebele (2009) with financial filtering a la Borio et al. (2013) and Berger et al. (2015). The results confirm that the Gründerkrise was by far modern Germany’s worst peacetime economic crisis prior to the Great Depression in the late 1920s. Financial and monetary forces amplified the boom of 1871-73, deepened the downturn in 1874-79, and acted as a drag on the recovery until well into the 1880s. The pattern resembles modern ‘balance sheet recessions’, i.e., protracted economic weakness in the aftermath of financial crises. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Wiegand, Johannes (2025): Financial Boom and Bust in the 19th Century: How Bad Was Germany’s Gründerkrise? IMF Working Paper WP 25/136, Washington D.C. JEL Classification Numbers: C38, G01, N13 Keywords: Gründerboom; Gründerkrise; German economic history; financial crisis; balance sheet recession; factor analysis; financial filter Author’s E-Mail Address: jwiegand@imf.org Contents I. Introduction and Historical Context ..................................................................................................................... 2 II. Methodology and Data ........................................................................................................................................... 4 III. Main Results ................................................................................................................................