世界银行-重温萨赫勒地区地震的五个事实（英）

By Stephanie Brunelin, Daniel Valderrama, Moritz Meyer, and German Andres Gallegos1REVISITING FIVE FACTS ABOUT SHOCKS IN THE SAHELSASPP Policy Note SeriesPOLICY NOTE 2 (SECOND EDITION) | MAY 2025Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized2SASPP Policy Note SeriesMay 2025The Sahel region faces significant challenges due to the prevalence of overlapping shocks that impact on the lives of its inhabitants. Approximately 60 percent of individuals in the Sahel are exposed to shocks, which are equally likely to be idiosyncratic—such as illness and death within households—or covariate, affecting entire communities.Among covariate shocks, climate-related events are more common than conflicts. Although conflict-related shocks impact a smaller portion of the population (6.5 percent), they are more geographically concentrated. Climate shocks are predominantly drought-related, with 28 percent of the population being affected by these events. Idiosyncratic shocks are varied, with illness and death of household members affecting 16 percent and 12 percent of the population, respectively.Poorer households are more vulnerable to climate and conflict shocks, which are more prevalent among the poor compared to idiosyncratic shocks. In addition to being more exposed, poor households are significantly less resilient to these shocks than their non-poor counterparts, making them more likely to resort to harmful coping strategies. In response to both idiosyncratic and covariate shocks, about one-quarter of households are compelled to adopt negative coping mechanisms, which undermine both their current and future well-being. Poorer households are particularly prone to adopting these harmful strategies, highlighting the need for adaptive social protection systems. These systems can help strengthen households’ resilience before a shock occurs and can quickly expand to protect households from climate and other shocks when they happen.MAIN TAKEAWAYSThe Sahel region is increasingly burdened by a combination of conflict, climate-related, and idiosyncratic shocks that together deepen poverty and instability. Since 2020, the region has faced a surge in violent extremism and insecurity, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where armed groups and political instability have displaced millions and disrupted livelihoods. At the same time, the impacts of climate change have intensified, with rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and severe flooding becoming more frequent, further threatening agricultural production and access to water. These systemic pressures are compounded by household-level, or idiosyncratic, shocks—such as illness, job loss, or livestock deaths—that disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable. Together, these intersecting risks create a volatile environment where traditional coping mechanisms are strained, reinforcing the urgency for robust adaptive social protecti