兰德-建造更庄严的大厦-参与式远见与世纪中叶的美国经济（英）

BUILD THEE MORE STATELY MANSIONSParticipatory Foresight and the Mid-Century U.S. EconomySteven W. Popper, Richard Silberglitt, Fabian Villalobos, Khrystyna Holynska, Krystyna Marcinek, Nadia Almasalkhi, Jack LashendockFor more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA1947-2.About RANDThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif.© 2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN: 978-1-9774-1469-4Cover: Illustration by Sara Herbst/RAND, Yevhenii/Adobe Stock and royyimzy/Adobe StockLimited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to its webpage on rand.org is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research products for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.iiiAbout This ReportU.S.-China competition, including economic competition, has come to define U.S. foreign policy since 2017. The two economies are the first- and second-largest national economies in the world and they are deeply intertwined in all aspects of international exchange. Any changes to the relationship, however necessary, could be costly. To respond to this challenge, RAND conducted economic and institutional analyses of U.S.-China competition, engaged in a participatory foresight exercise to understand the long-term