世界经济论坛-全球经济未来：2030年的竞争力（英）

Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030W H I T E P A P E RJ U N E 2 0 2 5In collaboration with AccentureImages: Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 41 Introduction: Understanding competitiveness 61.1 The competitiveness challenge 61.2 Key drivers of future competitiveness 82 Scenarios 122.1 Framework 122.2 Four futures for competitiveness in 2030 143 Industry exposure and implications 193.1 Mapping industry exposure 193.2 Implications across selected industries 214 Strategies for the future 25Appendices 27A1 Methodology 27Contributors 29Endnotes 31Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 20302ForewordThe global economy remains in flux, with uncertainty reaching unprecedented heights. Growth prospects are uneven, policy constraints are hardening and geopolitical tensions are increasingly shaping economic activity. In this evolving context, competitiveness – the ability of countries and firms to adapt, thrive and deliver prosperity – has become more contested and consequential.This second edition of the Global Economic Futures series explores the future of competitiveness through the interaction of geopolitics and regulation – two drivers reshaping the environment for countries and businesses alike. Flows of goods, services, finance, data and talent are being reconfigured, prompting a reassessment of long-standing assumptions about openness, resilience and value creation.The report uses scenario analysis to explore diverging trajectories for the global economy. It presents four distinct scenarios for 2030 based on varying degrees of geopolitical division and regulatory stringency. It also offers a data-driven view of how 12 key sectors may fare across these futures.The aim is not to predict the future but to equip decision-makers with tools for navigating uncertainty. The report encourages leaders to look beyond short-term disruptions and consider how today’s decisions can shape the future of competitiveness.We hope this edition will support public- and private-sector leaders as they confront a world in which decisions must be made amid an increasingly fractured and fast-moving global system.Aengus CollinsHead, Economic Growth and Transformation, World Economic ForumKathleen O’ReillySenior Managing Director, AccentureGlobal Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 Jun