法国预测与国际信息中心-外包脱碳？贸易如何塑造法国的碳足迹（2000-2014）（英）

Highlights France's emissions fell by 18% (2000-14), but its carbon footprint by only 5%. Trade-embedded emissions increased from 45% to 54% of France's total carbon footprint. Technique effects reduced emissions by 28%, mainly through efficiency gains abroad. Geographic shifts to carbon-intensive partners increased emissions by 18%. As countries decarbonize domestically, footprint reductions become increasingly dependent on foreign actions.Outsourcing Decarbonization? How Trade Shaped France’s Carbon Footprint (2000–14)No 2025-09 – June 2025Working PaperPierre Cotterlaz & Christophe Gouel CEPII Working Paper Outsourcing Decarbonization? How Trade Shaped France’s Carbon Footprint Abstract This study examines the evolution of France's carbon footprint from 2000 to 2014, with a particular focus on the role of international trade. During this period, France's territorial emissions decreased by 18%, yet its consumption-based footprint declined by only 5%. This modest reduction reflects an increase in emissions embedded in imports, which grew from 45% to 54% of the total. Employing a novel structural decomposition analysis, we disentangle the contributions of scale, composition, and technique effects from a consumption perspective. Our approach advances traditional methods by explicitly distinguishing between domestic and foreign influences and by separately analyzing trade openness and the geographic reallocation of trade flows. The results underscore the dominance of the technique effect in reducing emissions (-28%), driven primarily by efficiency improvements abroad. However, the geographic composition effect led to a substantial increase in emissions (+18%), especially due to shifts toward more carbon-intensive trading partners prior to 2008. This pattern - characterized by a growing reliance on foreign improvements for emission reductions - likely foreshadows developments in other developed economies as domestic decarbonization advances. It highlights the need for greater coordination between trade and climate policies. KeywordsCarbon footprint, Structural decomposition analysis, Consumption-based accounting, Scale, composition, and technique effects, France. JELF18, Q54, Q56, C67, F64.Working Paper© CEPII, PARIS, 2025Centre d’études prospectives et d’informations internationales 20, avenue de Ségur TSA 10726 75334 Paris Cedex 07contact@cepii.fr www.cepii.fr – @CEPII_Paris Press contact: presse@cepii.frCEPII Working PaperContributing to research in international economicsCEPII (Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales) is a French institute dedicated to producing independent, policy-oriented economic research helpful to understand the international economic environment and challenges in the areas of trade policy, competitiveness, macroeconomics, international finance and growth.EdItoRIAl dIRECtoR: AntoInE BouëtVISuAl dESIgn And PRoduCtIon: lAuRE BoIVInISSN 2970-491XJune 2025To subscribe to The CEPII Newsletter: www.cepii.fr/