欧洲央行-通货膨胀与浮动利率贷款：来自欧元区的证据（英）

Working Paper Series Inflation and floating-rate loans: evidence from the euro-area Fabrizio Core, Filippo De Marco, Tim Eisert, Glenn Schepens Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3064 Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP) This paper contains research conducted within the network “Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network” (ChaMP). It consists of economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). ChaMP is coordinated by a team chaired by Philipp Hartmann (ECB), and consisting of Diana Bonfim (Banco de Portugal), Margherita Bottero (Banca d’Italia), Emmanuel Dhyne (Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique) and Maria T. Valderrama (Oesterreichische Nationalbank), who are supported by Melina Papoutsi and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (both ECB), 7 central bank advisers and 8 academic consultants. ChaMP seeks to revisit our knowledge of monetary transmission channels in the euro area in the context of unprecedented shocks, multiple ongoing structural changes and the extension of the monetary policy toolkit over the last decade and a half as well as the recent steep inflation wave and its reversal. More information is provided on its website. ECB Working Paper Series No 30641AbstractWe provide novel evidence on the supply-side transmission of monetary policythrough a floating-rate channel. After a rate hike, firms with floating-rate loans keepprices elevated to offset higher borrowing costs, thereby reducing the effectiveness ofmonetary policy. Using monthly data on product-level prices, industry-level inflationrates and the euro-area credit register from 2021 to 2023, we find that the short-runimpact of monetary tightening on inflation is 50% smaller when firms rely on floating-rate loans. This effect is stronger for firms that rely more on working capital to financeproduction and when they can easily pass on higher prices to their sticky customerbase (customer capital). Since firms with floating-rate loans face an increase in theirfinancial burden, their loan terms are more frequently renegotiated, often resulting inreduced spreads and a shift from floating to fixed rates. Overall, if firms across theeuro area had a lower reliance on floating-rate loans, inflation would have been 0.8percentage points lower in 2022-2023.Keywords: Monetary policy transmission, Inflation, Floating-rate loans, Market power, Product pricesJEL: E31, E52, G21ECB Working Paper Series No 30642Non-technical SummaryA tightening of monetary policy rates is widely acknowledged as a key tool against inflation.Conventional macroeconomic models suggest that inflation will slow in response to anincrease in policy rates due to a reduction in aggregate demand