牛津经济研究院-拟议的洛杉矶快餐条例的影响（英）

IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED LOS ANGELES FAST FOOD ORDINANCE JUNE 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Save Local Restaurants commissioned Oxford Economics to calculate high-level cost estimates relating to a proposed city ordinance that would impose new requirements on quick-service restaurant operators in Los Angeles. Our analysis found that the proposed ordinance would cost a restaurant with 25 employees $48,312 annually, or a total of $54.7 million across 1,610 Los Angeles quick-service restaurants, equivalent to a 7.1% increase in labor costs. These projected costs come at a time when widespread news coverage shows the quick-service restaurant industry is already grappling with mass employee layoffs, reduced worker hours, increased food prices, and permanent closures—burdens that this proposed ordinance would likely intensify. Fig. 1: Annual impacts of each component of proposed new regulation Per employee cost per year Per restaurant cost per year (25 employees) Per restaurant cost per year (50 employees)1 Increase in cost across all restaurants in Los Angeles Impact of new training requirements $420 per employee $10,490 per restaurant $20,980 per restaurant $14.7 million per year Impact of scheduling requirements $1,513 per employee $37,822 per restaurant $75,644 per restaurant $39.9 million per year Total Impacts $1,932 per employee per year $48,312 per restaurant per year $96,624 per restaurant per year $54.7 million per year 1 While the average size of a fast-food restaurant in LA is smaller, we understand that a number of Save Local Restaurants members are larger, which is why this report also models average costs per restaurant with 50 employees. ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS REQUIREMENTS OF THE LOS ANGELES ORDINANCE We understand the proposed ordinance has two main elements: We discuss each of the requirements below and make preliminary estimates of their potential cost implications. The ultimate costs will depend on the final regulations and details of implementation. IMPACTS OF NEW TRAINING REQUIREMENTS To assess the costs of the compulsory annual training requirements, we identified four main cost components: a. Eighteen miles, estimated by converting the average commute time to work from the US Census Bureau of 31 minutes, assuming a 35 mph travel speed times IRS mileage reimbursement rate of $0.67 per mile, multiplied by two for the round trip. Available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B080ACS006037 and https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-issues-standard-mileage-rates-for-2024-mileage-rate-increases-to-67-cents-a-mile-up-1-point-5-cents-from-2023. Insurance costs are estimated at 6% of the trip cost following: https://www.bankrate.com/credit-cards/business/what-is-business-travel-insurance/#:~:text=The%20average%20cost%20of%20business,%2C%20deductible%20and%20additional%20expenses.%E2%80%9D b. See Employment Training Panel, “Fixed Fee Reimbursement Rates,” available at https://etp.ca.