世界经济论坛-从震惊到战略：构建未来30年的价值链（英）

From Shock to Strategy: Building Value Chains for the Next 30 YearsW H I T E P A P E RJ U N E 2 0 2 5In collaboration with Global Future Council on Advanced Manufacturing and Value ChainsImages: Getty ImagesDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders.© 2025 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system.ContentsForewordExecutive summary1 Driving forces affecting global value chains2 Key pillars of future-ready value chains3 Strategies shaping value chains up to 20303.1 Integrated sustainability3.2 End-to-end collaboration3.3 Technology adoption4 Value chain scenarios: Envisioning the path to 20404.1 Global relations and trade4.2 Regulatory complexity4.3 Consumer behaviour and expectations4.4 Climate disruption4.5 Technology evolution4.6 Cybersecurity4.7 Workforce and skills4.8 Social equityA mid-century outlook: 2050, a call to actionContributorsEndnotes34589101112141517192123252729313234From Shock to Strategy: Building Value Chains for the Next 30 Years2ForewordIn the face of profound uncertainty – whether from immediate geopolitical tensions or decades-long climate challenges – industry professionals are experiencing a fundamental rewiring of global value chains. Once a landscape dominated by the principles of globalization, industry now finds itself shifting towards strategies of regionalization and dual sourcing. As headlines highlight geostrategic competitive moves and regional conflicts, threats of cybersecurity and intensifying climate events, decision-makers are navigating an increasingly complex operational environment where strategic agility and resilience have become non-negotiable foundations of competitiveness.Against this backdrop, the Global Future Council on Advanced Manufacturing and Value Chains, a collaborative think tank of industry experts, academic leaders, civil society representatives and public officials, has developed this white paper to provide insight and strategic guidance across multiple time horizons. By examining potential value chain configurations through 2030, 2040 and 2050, the Council offers manufacturing and supply chain executives a framework to prepare for a profoundly uncertain future.It is our intention that the driving forces and scenarios outlined in this paper can help public- and private-sector stakeholders inform decision-making processes and identify appropriate strategies and policies to ensure that the manufacturing sector delivers responsib