IMF-融合需要什么？资本和金融的作用（英）

What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance Bryan Hardy and Can Sever WP/25/112IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUN * Hardy: Bank for International Settlements. Sever: International Monetary Fund. The views expressed in IMF Working Papersare those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.The views expressed there do not necessarily represent the views of the Bank for International Settlements. We would like to thank Matthieu Bellon, Gabriela Cugat, Samir Jahan, Nikola Spatafora, and Rene Tapsoba for helpful comments and discussions. We also would like to thank the seminar participants at the BIS and IMF for useful feedback. All errors belong to us. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/112IMF Working Paper African Department What is Needed for Convergence? The Role of Capital and Finance Prepared by Bryan Hardy and Can Sever* Authorized for distribution by Pablo Lopez Murphy June 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: What is needed for poor countries to catch up with rich ones? This paper first documents the role of human capital, physical capital, and financial development in convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across countries, and then examines the influence of economic structure and financial development at the aggregate level. Using industry-level data from manufacturing industries in a large set of countries over the period 1980-2022, we show that manufacturing industries exhibit strong unconditional convergence over time, but there is variation in the pace of convergence: Greater reliance on human capital in an industry is linked to faster convergence, whereas dependence on physical capital has no bearing. Instead, industries with a greater dependence on physical capital see convergence only if there is sufficient financial development. At the country level, we find that convergence tends to be faster as countries shift away from agriculture (which typically requires less human capital), and towards industrial production or services. Furthermore, poorer countries that initially have a higher share of agriculture in their GDP have been shifting away from agriculture at a faster rate, which may have contributed to the observed aggregate convergence. Greater financial development is also linked to faster convergence at the country level. JEL Classification Numbers: O11, O14, O40, Keywords: Productivity; convergence;