麦肯锡-增程式电动汽车能否推动更多购车者转向全电动汽车-06-市场解读（英）

February 2024Automotive & Assembly PracticeCould extended-range EVs nudge more car buyers toward full electric?Slowing battery-electric-vehicle sales growth reflects consumer price consciousness and range anxiety. Could extended-range EVs persuade more buyers of traditional cars to make the switch?This article is a collaborative effort by Kevin Laczkowski and Patrick Hertzke, with Anna-Sophie Smith, Deston Barger, Madhumitha Aravanan, and Paul Hackert, representing views from McKinsey’s Automotive & Assembly Practice and the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.As battery-electric-vehicle (BEV) sales growth in most markets has slowed, the automotive industry is weighing new methods to accelerate electrification momentum. In addition to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) have reemerged as one potential solution to assuage range anxiety and cost concerns among current owners of internal combustion engine (ICE), hybrid, and electric vehicles.Many potential buyers of electric vehicles (EVs) are reluctant to pay a premium to purchase a BEV instead of an ICE vehicle. Alongside price, driving range is a top source of unease among car buyers. For car owners who live in apartments or in other types of homes that lack regular access to overnight charging, as well as for drivers planning long-distance trips, scant public charging can be a concern. And though most drivers have a daily commute of less than 50 miles, others have much longer commutes.1 Given their inherent capacity to quell range anxiety and their strong sales momentum in China, EREVs have caught the attention of OEMs in Europe and the United States as one potential way to boost EV sales growth. EREVs were part of the first wave of electrification a decade ago, but they didn’t take off, because innovation-driven early EV adopters were mostly only interested in pure BEVs.2 EV buying has moved from early tech-savvy adopters to mainstream car buyers who are looking for a broader range of options.3 While EREVs are similar to PHEVs, they combine a small ICE-powered generator with an electric powertrain and can offer an electric-only driving range of 100 to 200 miles (versus a comparable PHEV’s range of 20 to 40 miles) and a total range of 400 to 500 miles (see sidebar, “EREVs and PHEVs: How are they different?”).4Informed by McKinsey analysis and data from an October–November 2024 survey of car buyers in the United States and Europe, this article explores whether EREVs could attract more customers to electric driving than BEVs or PHEVs. It also examines whether it could be worthwhile for OEMs to invest in a different powertrain technology in an environment where budgets are often tight and challenging regulatory deadlines are rapidly approaching.EREVs appeal to car buyers in the United States and Europe, but consumer education is vitalMcKinsey’s late-2024 survey of more than 2,800 new-car buyers in the United States and 2,300 in Germany and the United K