世界银行-越南2045年-绿色增长：通往有弹性和可持续未来的道路（英）

VIET NAM 2045GROWING GREENERPathways to a resilient and sustainable futurePublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized2VIET NAM 2045GROWING GREENERPathways to a resilient and sustainable future©2025 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its Board of Executive Directors. The World Bank do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of the World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Publishing and Knowledge Division, the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC, 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover design by Le Bros, photo credit ©shutterstock.comCONTENTSABBREVIATIONS iACKNOWLEDGMENTS iiiOVERVIEW ivAdapting to climate impacts vRecommendations for 2026–30 xReconciling economic growth and emission reductions xiiiRecommendations for 2026–30 xxLeveraging the marine economy for sustainable and resilient growth xxiiRecommendations for 2026–30 xxivINTRODUCTION 2CHAPTER 1. ADAPTING TO CLIMATE IMPACTS 51.1. Viet Nam’s environmental context 71.2. What is the economic cost of inaction in the face of climate change? 81.3. What are the distributional impacts of various global climate change scenarios? 161.4. How could investing in adaptive measures help? 211.5. Which policies would support resilient growth? 27CHAPTER 2. RECONCILING GROWTH AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS 312.1. Can current mitigation policies realize Viet Nam’s net zero objective? 332.1.1. How do these policies stack up? 332.1.2. What can these current policies achieve? 382.2. What more will it take to put Viet Nam on the net zero emissions path? 422.3. Will a carbon tax reduce GHG emissions? 452.4. Which growth challenges does Viet Nam face amid carbon emissions mitigation? 512.5. Where are the green growth opportunities for Viet Nam? 542.6. Which policies will support Viet Nam on its 2050 net zero path? 57CHAPTER 3. MARINE ECONOMY – A CRUCIAL NEXUS FOR CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION 613.1. Why focus on the marine economy? 633.2. How does the marine sector contribute to the economy, and what are its growth prospects? 663.3. What are the main challenges hindering sustainable growth of Viet Nam’s marine economy? 72 3.4. What is the value of marine ecosy