英文【国际货币基金组织】吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国：选定问题

© 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/119 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Kyrgyz Republic was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 7, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. June 2025 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES Approved By Middle East and Central Asia Department Prepared By Nasir Rao, Anvar Muratkhanov, Nihal Haider, Jean van Houtte, Farid Talishli, Erkeaim Shambetova (all MCD), Natalie Manuilova, and Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen (all FAD). POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC ___________________________________ 4 A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 4 B. Methodology and Results ____________________________________________________________ 5 C. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations ___________________________________________ 9 FIGURES 1. Gross Capital Formation ______________________________________________________________ 5 2. GDP Growth – Regional Comparison _________________________________________________ 5 3. GDP Growth __________________________________________________________________________ 5 4. Regional Trade and Remittances _____________________________________________________ 5 5. Potential Output (Total) ______________________________________________________________ 7 6. Potential Output (Non-Gold) _________________________________________________________ 7 7A. Potential Output (Total) ____________________________________________________________ 7 7B. Potential Output (Non-Gold) _______________________________________________________ 7 8. Output Gap Dynamics ________________________________________________________________ 8 9. Output Gap vs Labor Indicators ______________________________________________________ 8 ANNEX I. Model Specifications ________________________________________________________________ 10 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 15 LABOR MARKET CHALLENGES AND POLICY REFORMS IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC ____________________________________________________________________________ 17 A. Importance of Labor Market Analysis ______________________________________________ 17 CONTENTS May 7, 2025 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND B. Overview of the Labor Market in the Kyrgyz Republic ______________________________________ 17 C. Policies Affecting the Labor Market ________________________________________________________ 23 D. Conclusion and Policy Options _____________________________________________________________ 25 FIGURES