IMF-没有快速解决方案：希腊的复苏和韧性计划以及外部立场（英）

No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel WP/25/110 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 JUN * We are grateful to Gustavo Adler, Marialena Athanasopoulou, Kai Behrens, Romain Bouis, Giovanni Callegari, Martin CarusoBloeck, Hamid Davoodi, Isabela Duarte, Matthias Gnewuch, Joong Shik Kang, Dimitris Malliaropulos, Yasin Mimir, Ritong Qu,Rolf Strauch, Konstantinos Theodoridis, and participants at research seminars at the Bank of Greece and the European Stability Mechanism for constructive feedback and suggestions. © 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/110IMF Working Paper WHD No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece Prepared by Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel* Authorized for distribution by Gustavo Adler June 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Greece has coped with large current account deficits and negative net foreign assets for a long time. Now, the country has an opportunity to address this vulnerability through the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and its associated Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). The plan involves large public investments and reforms, aimed at boosting Greece’s long-term potential. The crucial question is: can this ambitious plan fix Greece's external imbalances over the long run? Using a small open-economy model, we track how the RRP may affect savings, investment, and external balances. We find that: (i) a successful RRP/RRF can correct most of Greece’s external imbalances, through a large increase in public savings; (ii) the RRP/RRF is no magic bullet, as prudent macroeconomic policies will remain necessary to lock-in the positive effects over the long run. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Aligishiev, Z., and R. Blotevogel. 2025. Saving for stability: Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan and its impact on the external position. Working Paper WP/25/110. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. JEL Classification Numbers: C54, E21, E61, F45, F47 Keywords: Greece, external position, national savings and investment, Recovery and Resilience Facility, fiscal policy, macroprudential policies Author’s E-Mail Address: ZAligishiev@imf.org, r.blotevogel@esm.europa.eu IMF WORKING PAPERS Title of WP INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 3 WORKING PAPERS No Quick Fix: The Recovery and Resilience Plan and External Position in Greece Prepared by Zamid Aligishiev and Robert Blotevogel1