欧洲央行-在一个更加碎片化的世界里，通货膨胀仍然是全球性的吗？（英）

www.ecb.europa.eu © ECB-CONFIDENTIAL•7 June 2025Is inflation still global in a more fragmented world?1Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference, CroatiaRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 1.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25ECB deposit facility rateEffective Fed funds rate2%4.33%2Monetary policy in the euro area and the US diverged in 2025ECB and Federal Reserve key interest rates(percentages)Sources: BBG, SDW, ECB calculations.Notes: ECB deposit facility rate at 2% is effective as of 12 June 2025.Latest observation: 6 June 2025. Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 3Global interest rates strongly correlated except for periods with large idiosyncratic shocks-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.019761980198519901995200020052009201420192024CorrelationMedian correlationGerman reunificationAftermath euro area sovereign debt crisisGlobal financialcrisisCOVID-19Great inflationSources: Bundesbank, FRED.Latest observation: April 2025.Five-year correlation of German and US one-year bond yield(correlation coefficient, moving five-year windows)Rubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 4Headline and core inflation have been highly correlated in the euro area and the USCorrelation of inflation in the United States and euro area between 1979 and 2024(correlation coefficient)Source: ECB calculations.Notes: Vertical axis: correlation of headline (blue) and core (orange) at different leads and lags. Horizontal axis: negative values indicate that the US lags the euro area and vice versa, in quarters. The diamonds indicate the maximum values. Sample 1979-2024, quarterly data.0.00.20.40.60.81.0-12-9-6-3036912Negative: US lags the euro areaHeadlineCoreRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 5Tariff conflict may dampen domestic inflation through global demandBMPE global growth forecast revisions: June 2025 vs December 2024(percentage points)Source: June 2025 and December 2024 staff projections.Supply and demand drivers of inflation dynamics(percentage points and percentage point contributions in deviations from the mean implied by the model and initial conditions)Source: Eurostat, ECB, Eurosystem and ECB staff calculations.Notes: Historical decomposition based on a large BVAR model accounting for a rich set of inflation drivers, identified with zero and sign restrictions, see Banbura, M., Bobeica, E. and Martínez Hernández, C. (2024) “What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks”, ECB Working Paper No. 2875. The chart shows the deviations of HICP inflation from the mean implied by the model. The latest observation is for April 2025.-4-20246810202020212022202320242025Global supplyDomestic supplyDomestic demandGlobal demandIdiosyncraticHICP-Headline-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.020252026USEuro areaOther AEsChinaOther EMEsTotalRubricwww.ecb.europa.eu © 00.10.20.30.4RUSAUSJPNUSAITACHNGBRGRCESPCANROMFRAMEXIRLDNKFINPRTKORPOLDEUNLDSWEBGRAUTLTUTWNSVNCZEHUNBEL6Global value chains amplify the impact of tariff-induced cost-push shock