英文【Bernstein】金蝶：实施收入提价对收入和毛利率轨迹产生积极影响

10 June 2025Asia Software TechnologiesKingdee SoftwareRatingOutperformPrice Target268.HK18.00 HKDBoris Van+852 2123 2617boris.van@bernsteinsg.comTing Ming Neo+852 2123 2554tingming.neo@bernsteinsg.comAdjusted EPSF24AF25EF26E268.HK (CNY)(0.04)0.020.15 OLD----0.06FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRRevenues (M)6,2567,1458,514--Gross Margin (%)65.166.468.0--Operating Margin (%)(5.4)(0.8)4.4--Net Earnings (M)(184.34)96.72593.25--Net Income Margin (%)(2.3)1.16.2--Valuation MetricsF24AF25EF26EAdjusted P/E (x)(359.4)670.196.3EV/Sales (x)6.45.64.7Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Kingdee: Implementation revenue price increases- positiveimpact towards revenue and GPM trajectoryKingdee announced adding 15% of subscription fee for advanced implementationservices, stock up 11% in Hong Kong: Starting 1st July 2025, Kingdee will be chargingan additional service fee (15% of subscription fee) for Galaxy and large enterprise cloudcustomers who require advanced implementation services- mostly targeting largeenterprises that require them.Breakdown of its service related revenues: Implementation still makes up ~60% ofcosmic and constellation revenue as Kingdee still manages most contracts in-house. Thisannouncement separates the standard package from more advanced customizations.We understand that the push here is to dis-incentivize customizations and instead opt forconfigurations within the PaaS platforms. At this point, we estimate <1/3 might still needthese services. So price increases would be at ~20% of the large enterprise revenue.Positive development in the push for higher quality revenue: The key point is less inthe price increase but Kingdee progressing to improve the revenue/gross margin structuralrelationship impacted by the large percentage of services revenue in the Cloud business.By “penalizing” additional customization, it enables better management of implementationheadcount, lower costs, and revenue scaling with gross margin improvement.We take up revenue but more importantly have better clarity on gross marginimprovement and take up the GPM trajectory: With ~25% of large enterprises requiringthese services, we believe that the 15% roll out will be more gradual starting with companiesnegotiating down the price increase in the near term. Modeling this out results in 1-2%incremental revenue growth for large enterprise. Gross margins would improve 50bps to100bps in the short term and up to 300bps from 68% to 71% in the longer term.Investment ImplicationsWe rate Kingdee Outperform, TP HKD18.Close Date 9 Jun 2025268.HK Close Price (HKD) 14.40Price Target (HKD) 18.00Upside/(Downside) 25%52-Week Range 17.76/5.26ASIAX1,389.92FYE DecDiv Yield NAMarket Cap (HKD) (M) 51,112EV (HKD) (M) 43,554PerformanceYTD1M6M12MAbsolute (%)68.88.847.781.8ASIAX (%)8.14.04.610.8Relative (%)60.74.743.171.1Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Price Performance, 1YRHK$18HK$16HK$14HK$12HK$10HK$8HK$606/2409/2412/2403/2506/2511501200125013001350140014501500268.H