英文【高盛】FLSmidth - Co. (FLS.CO) 利润率提升推动重新评级；上调至买入

Key Data __________________________________ GS Forecast ________________________________ GS Factor Profile ____________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.Market cap: Dkr20.9bn / $3.2bnEnterprise value: Dkr22.8bn / $3.5bn3m ADTV: Dkr38.7mn / $5.7mnDenmarkEurope MachineryM&A Rank: 3Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes12/2412/25E12/26E12/27ERevenue (Dkr mn) New20,187.018,683.919,341.220,269.9Revenue (Dkr mn) Old20,187.018,876.919,479.220,414.5EBIT (Dkr mn)1,998.52,271.32,419.72,642.5EPS (Dkr) New22.5128.2229.5532.50EPS (Dkr) Old22.5125.8727.0429.97P/E (X)15.312.912.311.2Dividend yield (%)2.32.63.23.6CROCI (%)8.17.89.89.7N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X)0.20.2(0.0)(0.1)3/256/25E9/25E12/25EEPS (Dkr)7.066.816.887.47FLS.CO relative to Europe CoverageFLS.CO relative to Europe MachineryGrowthFinancial ReturnsMultipleIntegratedPercentile20th40th60th80th100th We upgrade FLSmidth to Buy from Neutral, increasing our 12m price target to DKK430 (from DKK340) as we raise our margin expectations, based on our forecast that further SG&A savings and an increased service and PCV mix will support profits. We argue that through ongoing self-help measures, FLSmidth will increase its margins by +320bps to 14.2% by 2027e. This drives our adj. EBITA estimates c.+2% above Visible Alpha Consensus for the year. We argue that a re-rating is warranted, given that FLSmidth’s current 9.9x 12m-forward EV/EBIT multiple sits below its 11.5x 10Y median, despite the group’s improving margin prospects that should close the relative margin and ROIC gap to its mining equipment peers that trade on a 14.35x average. Additionally, FLSmidth stated that it is now in exclusive negotiations to divest its Cement business. We view this event as a potential catalyst for the equity story, leaving space for a re-rating as the company turns into a pure-play mining business with a high copper and gold mix, and an improving returns profile. Looking ahead, FLSmidth has cited discussions with EPCM partners that are busy with study work, historically a precursor to a pick-up in orders over the following 12-18 months. Thus, while tariff uncertainties leave us relatively cautious on near-term demand, we expect these project studies to turn into orders from FY26e, and therefore forecast group orders +0.3%/+0.7%/+1.8% above consensus for FY25/26/27e. With low current leverage (0.35x) and any potential cash inflow from a Cement divestment, we see scope for increased investment in organic and inorganic growth, including an expansion in PCV. We therefore upgrade FLSmidth to Buy from Neutral, increasing our FLS.CO12m Price Target: Dkr430.00Price: Dkr364.60Upside: 17.9% FLSmidth & Co. (FLS.CO) Margin up-lift to drive re-rating; Up to Buy27 May 2025 | 5:00AM BST Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect t